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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, January 12, 2019
A MODERATE danger exists for triggering an avalanche that breaks 1-3' deep at the mid and upper elevation west through southeast facing terrain. A pockety Moderate danger exists on other steep slopes. Wet loose activity may be expected by late afternoon on steep southerly aspects. Avoid any slope with fresh wind drifts from the gusty easterly winds.
Safe travel protocol is key: make a plan, communicate, one-at-a-time, keep eyes on your partner.
Low
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Weather and Snow
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Skies are clear, ain't it a shame. (Not that you'd know it from the valleys.) Winds aloft continued to veer clockwise overnight and are now blowing 20mph with gusts from the east with occasional gusts to 25. Mountain temps are in the upper teens to low 20s with trailhead and basin thermometers in the single digits. Fair weather persists through Monday with a storm out of the west/southwest for mid-week. Some of the models are quite bullish on projected snow and water amounts. Stay tuned.
For today, expect clear skies, lmoderate easterly winds, and mountain temps rising to the mid 20s in the high country. Should be a good day to get out and about.
Skiing and riding conditions are fair with pretty darn good coverage across the range, even at the lower elevations. Total snow depths are a settled 50-60" in the higher elevations. Many trailheads and lower elevation exits have snow depths from 35-45" (elevations roughly 6000'-7500').
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanche activity was reported from the backcountry yesterday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The mountain snowpack harbors more than a few structural irregularities and interfaces that involve old faceted October snow in the basement as well as pre-Christmas and post-New Year's buried weak layers. Time, warm temps, and settlement has helped the snowpack to adjust and slowly stabilize over the past few days, but I still need some more data points to feel completely confident. I would still advise approaching steep wind drifted areas - particularly thinner snowpack areas - with caution.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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