Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly for
Thursday, January 11, 2024

The avalanche danger is HIGH at mid and upper elevations as new snowfall and wind-drifted snow continues to add more weight on top of a buried persistent weak layer (PWL). The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at elevations below 8,000'.

Step off your sled or off the skin track and take note of any wind loading, recent avalanches, cracking, collapsing, and whoomphing as these are all signs that our weak snowpack is overloaded.

Today is a day to back off of and out from under steep terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Avalanche Warning

The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH for the mountains of northern and central Utah and southeast Idaho, which includes the Wasatch Range...the Bear River Range...Uinta Mountains...Manti-Skyline plateau...and the Mountains of Southwestern Utah.

Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.

This avalanche warning is in effect from Thursday, January 10, 2024 - 6:00am to Friday, January 11, 2024 - 6:00am

Special Announcements

Wondering what happened to the mid-pack PWL? Curious how the December dry spell will play out? Interested in what factors determine future stability trends? Please join UAC forecaster Craig Gordon at 6:00 on Thursday January 11th, at the Kimball Junction library for a FREE State of the Snowpack presentation. More INFO

Weather and Snow

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in single digits °F. Winds have blown all night from the northwest in the teens MPH gusting to the low 20's MPH. There were reports of 10"-16" of snow and .50"-1" of water in the last 24 hours. This snow has been heavily wind affected and deeper drifts can be found in exposed areas and at higher ridgelines.

For today, we are expecting temperatures 12-15°F with winds blowing from the northwest 20 gusting to 25 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 30 gusting to 35 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. Snow will continue throughout the day with trace-2" of new snow expected and up to .10" of water.

Our partners at the National Weather Service have updated the forecast and are calling for 35-50" of snow with an additional 3"-3.5" of water with a more substantial storm moving into the area Friday afternoon-Saturday.

Recent Avalanches

We had one observation from Snake Creek yesterday. We had 8 reports of avalanches that were intentionally or unintentionally triggered from the backcountry in the Salt Lake Region which is similar to what you would find in the mid and high elevation terrain in the Provo Area Mountains. These avalanches were primarily on east-northeast aspects above 9,000'. I don't think a lack of reported activity at other aspects and elevations means there were no avalanches as there were reports from ski area and highway operations of avalanches failing on all aspects at mid and high elevations

Today, you can expect to see dry-loose activity where the newest storm snow is running on a density change. These dry-loose avalanches in the new snow could entrain more snow in steep long running slopes as well as be the additional weight needed to break down in the buried PWL layer triggering a much deeper avalanche. Expect to see dry-loose storm snow avalanches today.

Photo below showing a close call with a partial burial in Mineral Fork. Which is similar to what you could expect to see in the Provo Area Mountains in or under steep terrain. Thanks to the parties involved for sharing a detailed report.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

You will find reactive soft slabs of wind-drifted snow at the mid and upper elevations. It won't take much wind to transport this new snow around and any additional snow and wind could be enough to tip the scales creating avalanches failing down into the buried PWL layer from the old snow surface.

New snow drifting and loading has already been extensive enough for NATURAL AVALANCHES to have occurred in steep terrain.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The December drought layer PWL of weak sugary facets has been further stressed and overloaded by blowing and drifting snow. Cracking and collapsing will be much more common today, as will both natural and human triggered avalanches.

Additional Information

Check out a forecaster discussion Mark and I had diving deeper into the forecast and how we will travel in the backcountry with a buried PWL

Check out this video Craig Gordon put together talking about the 5 red flags we use to determine if there is unstable snow.

1. Recent Avalanches

2. Cracking and Collapsing

3. Strong Winds

4. Heavy Snowfall

5. Rapidly Rising Temperatures

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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