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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Another night without a good refreeze. Today, we'll have areas of Considerable avalanche danger for wet avalanches on many slopes. They will be most pronounced in the mid and low elevations and particularly on the north to east side of the compass. High northerly slopes will also be prone to wet sluffing in steeper terrain. Cornices and glide avalanche-prone slopes are to be avoided. Lastly, shallow new snow instabilities may spike with periods of heavy snowfall in the late afternoon.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Two long time meteorologists with a keen eye for mountain weather both described this upcoming storm as synoptically beautiful. Admittedly, they are both long time backcountry skiers, but when meteorologists gush and wax poetic about the structure of a storm, I sit up and take notice.
Skies are overcast with overnight "lows" in the mid to upper-40s. Many stations remain at or near yesterday's highs. The winds backed to the south-southwest overnight and along the Ogden skyline are blowing 40-45 with gusts to 55. More protected anemometers are spinning 25mph with gusts to 40. It's our second night with a poor-if at all-refreeze and snow supportability will be spatially variable at best. In many areas, you'll sink up to your knees even with skis or snowshoes. Picture trenching on a sled. At least the initial precipitation today will fall as rain to all elevations. If there was ever a day to work on your taxes, this is that day. Probably best to stay on groomed, heavily packed, or low angle terrain, or rest up for some powder skiing and riding over the next few days.
But back to the synoptically beautiful storm. The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning with 1-2' of snow expected through Thursday. The sharp cold front arrives this afternoon (roughly 2pm) with a dramatic wind shift, gusty winds, and perhaps some thunder and lightning. I'd expect a fair bit of graupel. Snow will fall to the benches in the overnight hours. One of the meteorologists goes on to write that "Sensibly, it will be a good reminder that winter weather isn`t over yet, and spring in the eastern great basin is more like a roller coaster than a cruise."
Recent Avalanches
None reported.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With another night of sweltering temperatures and a warm blanket to help hold in the heat, wet sluff and wet slab avalanches are possible on many steep slopes today. Upper elevation northerly slopes are likely to sluff both with the temperatures and the initially high rain/snow line. Low and particularly mid elevation terrain (even more particularly northwest through north through southeast facing slopes) will also be avalanche prone, where human triggered sluffs will easily gouge into more wet unconsolidated grains a foot or more beneath the surface.
From a risk management perspective, today is classic High Risk Low Reward.
Other concerns for the backcountry traveler -
CORNICES remain a concern with tremendous heating and are large and unruly this year. Give them a wide berth along the ridgelines.
GLIDE CRACKS have been noted in the Cutler Ridge and Ben Lomond area. These glide cracks can sometimes release catastrophically (glide avalanches), pulling out the entire winter's snowpack to the ground, leaving large debris piles. Avoid being beneath these opening glide cracks. photo below of glide cracks -
PERSISTENT WEAK LAYERS formed during the equinox and now buried 3+' appear to have fully healed but still some uncertainty exists with these layers. They were most prominent on north to northwest aspects in the mid-elevations.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If we see more snow than expected this afternoon, high snowfall rates will promote rapid instability with the new snow. I expect a good bond to the old snow surfaces, but high precipitation intensity generally leads to touchy conditions independent of aspect.
Additional Information
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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