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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne for
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
The day begins with generally Low hazard, but will rise to Moderate as the day warms where wet, loose avalanches are possible on solar aspects. Increasing westerly winds will create pockets of fresh wind drifts on upper elevation aspects facing north through southeast. A very warm, wet, and windy storm will raise the avalanche hazard over the next few days.
Low
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Special Announcements
Join Drew Hardesty at 7PM on Wednesday, March 6 at Rocksteady Bodyworks in SLC for an interactive discussion on the State of the Snowpack. IF you plan on attending, there's required reading beforehand.
Ok it's not required, but it's helpful. LOW Danger Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 4. You can find them all under our Blog page in the Menu above. Extra thanks to Derek Debruin, Russ Costa, and Laura Maguire.
The latest podcast is out. In this episode, we sit down with Ian McCammon. Ian has done as much for the avalanche community as nearly anyone over the past 20 years and recently received the highest award given by the American Avalanche Association. Tune in -
Weather and Snow
Currently: Temperatures range throughout the 20 F. and winds are southerly and generally light, averaging less than 10 mph with gusts in the teens. Gusts are in the 20’s mph on Mt. Ogden.
Today: Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy, with increasing winds, especially by later in the day. Temperatures will rise into the 30's at low and mid elevations, and mid to upper 20's F at the upper elevations. Winds will be out of the southwest, and generally light through midday. But will begin to increase this afternoon, averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's. Strong winds with snow developing overnight, with a rain snow line initially between 7000' and 7500'.
This Week: Warm, wet, and windy. Heavy dense snow on a southwest flow through Thursday. Upwards of 1-2' of snow is possible, containing about 2" of water. (It's possible the models are under-forecasting water amounts.) A brief break around Friday with a colder storm early in the weekend. The pattern generally looks favorable through at least the next 7-10 days with a series of systems moving through from time to time, with no dominant ridges of high pressure. March is, after all, our wettest month!
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported from the Ogden backcountry. On my field day on Ben Lomond yesterday may partner and I found very stable conditions.
If you are getting into the Ogden backcountry, we appreciate hearing about what you're seeing, and greatly value any and all observations we receive!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Warming temperatures today will generate the usual round of wet loose activity on steep solar aspects facing southeast through west. Although I am not expecting low and mid elevation northerly aspects to become active with wet avalanches today, if we do get a period of greenhousing (where cloud cover traps heat) rollerballs and minor wet loose activity will be possible on all aspects below about 7500'. Any loose, wet avalanches will be both skier-triggered as well as natural.
Learn more about Dry Sluffs and Wet Sluffs in the Avalanche Problem Toolbox.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds are forecasted to increase as the day progresses, creating pockets of fresh wind drifts along leeward aspects facing northwest through southeast at the upper elevations. These drifts may be particularly sensitive as they will be forming on top of weaker dry/loose snow that fell late this past weekend.
Cornices remain a significant concern along mid and upper elevation ridgelines, particularly along the ridges adjacent to the Snowbasin backcountry. Some cornices overhang the slope 10-20', and increasing winds over the next several days will make them even larger. Stay well back from and avoid traveling underneath corniced ridgelines. Today's sun and warmth may make these cornices more sensitive.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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