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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne for
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
It is a day of rising danger, with the avalanche hazard reaching CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon at mid and upper elevations facing west, through north, and east. The primary avalanche concern are recent and new wind slabs at the mid and upper elevations. Cornices are also growing and may break off naturally. Avoid traveling on a slope beneath cornices, and stay well back from a corniced ridgeline. Possible rain on snow at lower elevations add to the list of avalanche concerns, as well as sluffing in the new snow and shallow, sensitive storm slabs that may develop during any period of higher precipitation intensity.
The avalanche hazard will likely rise to HIGH by later this week, with elevated avalanche hazard through at least the holiday weekend.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Watch
The Utah Avalanche Center has issued an Avalanche Watch for all the mountains of northern and central Utah, including the Bear River and Wasatch Range, the western Uintas, and the Manti Skyline. Strong winds and heavy dense snow, with rain-on-snow at lower elevations will create dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural and human-triggered avalanches will be likely by later Wednesday and into Thursday morning. This watch is expected to be elevated to a warning by Thursday morning.
Special Announcements
There have now been four avalanche fatalities in four weeks in Utah. Yesterday, UAC staff investigated the avalanche that took the life of 49 year old Jason Lyman. Find the avalanche report HERE.
Weather and Snow
Temperatures this morning in the Ogden mountains range through the 20's F, but you may not notice it as the winds are grabbing the headlines. Strong winds out of the south/southwest are blowing at the mid and upper elevations, with hourly averages in the 20's and 30's mph. Gusts are in the 40's and 50's mph, with some stations above 9000' reporting gusts in the 60's and 70's mph. No new snow has been reported overnight.
Snowfall is expected for today, especially this afternoon, with 4-6” possible by later today. Winds will continue to blow out of the southwest, averaging in the 20’s mph at mid elevations and 30’s at upper elevations. Gusts will be in the 40’s at mid elevations, and 60’s at upper elevations. Temperatures will be in the 20’s F.
Rain at lower elevations will be possible, with a rain/snow line hovering at about 7000'.
Strong winds and heavy, dense snow is forecasted overnight into Thursday, with significant accumulations possible. Temperatures will be warming on Thursday, with a rising rain/snow line.
Expect rising avalanche hazard over the next few days, with an elevated hazard persisting through the holiday weekend.
Recent Avalanches
Small pockets of fresh drifts and sensitive cornices were reported from resorts as well as from the backcountry. Bill Brandt did find one natural avalanche on Ben Lomond's Rodeo Ridge. This was on a wind-loaded slope at 7700' [photo: Brandt] (Link to observation)
In my field day yesterday in the backcountry adjacent to Powder Mountain I was finding fresh cornices and small wind pockets just along the ridgelines.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds will create dense drifts today at the mid and upper elevations. Although winds are out of the south/southwest, such strong winds can work through terrain, and cross-load almost any aspect. Watch for obvious signs of wind-loading such as smooth, rounded pillows.
Several observers have noted the increasing sizes of cornices along upper elevation ridgelines. Cornices will continue to grow today, so be sure to stay well-back from the ridge lines as cornices could break back much further than expected. Also avoid traveling below any cornices as fresh drifting along cornices may break off naturally.
Video below from Powder Mountain backcountry on Tuesday:
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although I am not expecting much new snow today, it is possible during periods of higher precipitation there will be sluffing in the new snow as well as shallow storm slabs from the denser snowfall that is expected.
Additionally, there is plenty of cold, dry snow at lower elevations, and rain on snow is possible today up to about 7000'. If it does rain where you are traveling, the cold, dry snow will quickly become reactive.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The remotely triggered avalanche on Sharp's Mountain on Friday was on a wind loaded northwest slope at 8500'. In my field day yesterday in the Powder Mountain backcountry (observation) I found the structure of weak facets down near the ground in isolated west-facing terrain above 8500' where there was a thinner snowpack. With additional snow and wind in the forecast, this is a layer that will need to be evaluated, especially in the zone adjacent to Powder Mountain and north towards the Cache Valley. If you find the structure of stronger snow over weaker, sugary snow down near the ground, especially in areas with a thinner snowpack (less than 4') that slope is susceptible to avalanching in steeper terrain.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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