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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Shallow wind drifts may be found scattered in the mid and upper elevations warranting a continued MODERATE danger. The danger will also reach at least MODERATE and perhaps CONSIDERABLE this weekend for wet avalanche activity on the steep sun-kissed slopes.
Hot Tip! Wind and sun-sheltered low angle terrain is 4 stars. Low Risk High Reward.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Yesterday a snowmobiler was buried by an avalanche in the La Sal Mountains of southeastern Utah. Members of his party were unable to locate him. Search and rescue personnel will continue the search this morning. We will provide more information as it becomes available.
Weather and Snow
Skies are partly cloudy. West-northwest winds are 10-15mph with gusts to 25. The highest anemometers spin 30mph with gusts to 45. Temps are in the upper-teens to low 20s.
Total snow depths are 60-70" with excellent coverage at the low elevations. It's been a good run. Various sun, rime, and wind crusts abound but the best conditions are found in the mid-elevation sun and wind sheltered terrain. For today, expect fair weather, light to moderate northwesterly winds, and ridgetop temps rising to the mid-20s. The weather looks uninteresting until the turn of the month.
Recent Avalanches
None.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shallow and pockety wind drifts will continue to be found in the mid to higher elevations today and in the open bowls and exposed terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Previous crusting of the snow surface will help slow or stem a major wet avalanche cycle, but I expect both natural and human triggered wet avalanches on the steep sunlit slopes today. Watch for the tell-tale signs of thaw-instability such as rollerballs and pinwheels or if the snow becomes wet and unsupportable. If you've overstayed your welcome, move to a cooler aspect or seek low angle terrain. More info on wet avalanches can be found in the Avalanche Encyclopedia here.
Additional Information
Risk management in the backcountry is all about time and place. Take steep sunny aspects, for example. Too early and it might be slide-for-life conditions. Too late and it might be terrifying wet avalanche conditions. Timing is everything. If your sense of timing is off, avoid the steep sunny aspects altogether. Same goes for wind drifts. Tomorrow, the drifts should be stable. For today, avoid the alpine terrain where they exist.
There's an old adage, Of terrain, weather, and snowpack, we can only choose terrain. It's actually not true. It's through our terrain choices that we choose our weather and and snowpack. It's up to us to choose when and where we go.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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