Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Today, there is a pockety MODERATE danger for triggering a small wind drift, most likely on an on upper elevation slope facing west through north through east. But watch for the hard, cracky drifts to be scattered on other aspects and even a few mid elevation slopes. There remains an isolated chance for triggering an avalanche that breaks 1-2' deep into faceted snow at the mid and upper elevations, most likely in steep, wind loaded, unsupported terrain, that faces northwest through east. Approach wind drifted slopes with caution, and consider the consequences of getting caught in any slide.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Under partly cloudy skies, the inversion continues in the Ogden area mountains, with teens at the low elevations and trailheads. Mid and upper elevation temperatures are in the mid to low 20s this morning. The southeasterly winds ramped up overnight in the Ogden area mountains, and are averaging 20 to 25 mph range, gusting in the high 30s. Wind speeds are expected to remain elevated along the high ridge lines today. Skies will remain cloudy and a trace to 1” of snow is possible late in the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 20s to mid 30s.
A more organized system tonight into Wednesday could bring 3 to 6” of snow by tomorrow night. There is a more potent system (snow and wind) is still expected for the latter portion of the week - Thursday and Friday.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanche activity reported from the Ogden area mountains. If you're thinking of heading north, make sure to read the Logan area forecast, and all about their recent avalanches.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With the overnight winds and more wind in the forecast, I expect pockety, erratic wind drifts to form that that could be triggered by a person, mostly at the upper elevations. Isolatted drifts may form at the mid elevations, too. Think “wind plates,” layers of stiff snow deposited by the wind. These plates or drifts will be sitting on weak, faceted snow, which may make them easier to “pop out” with the weight of a person.
Below: Visual of wind affected snow, eroded and deposited, even in a protected gully feature. Provo area mountains, Grainger photo.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The various faceted layers in the Ogden area mountian snowpack are mostly dormant and are adjusting to the load of snow and wind from early last week. However, avalanches remain possible. The areas of biggest concern are wind-loaded slopes at the mid and upper elevations that face northwest through east where the wind slabs are sitting on top of weak, faceted snow. Shallower snowpack areas also remain suspect.
How have some of these persistent weak layers formed? Check out this new Blog by Greg Gagne that includes an explanation of near surface faceting. Photo below of square, angular, near surface facets.
Additional Information
The Wasatch range has a complex weak snow surface for the incoming storms to land on - near surface facets, surface hoar and a variety of weak crusts and hard old wind slabs with facets above and below. If you’re out and about, keep looking at the variety of snow surfaces.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.