Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 8, 2019
The avalanche danger is generally MODERATE this morning but could rise to CONSIDERABLE later today as new snow and wind create fresh drifts along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features, primarily on slopes that face NW-N-SE. New wind drifts will cover old, and avalanches up to 3' deep will be possible on steep, wind loaded terrain. Be alert to changing conditions and adjust your plans accordingly. There also remains an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried, persistent weak layer. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, rocky, northerly facing slopes, or in areas with a shallower snowpack.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
It is with great sadness that I report the death of an old friend. On Sunday, March 3, Scott Spencer was caught, buried, and killed in an avalanche near Lizard Head Pass, about 12 miles south of Telluride, Colorado. It has been a deadly season in Utah and Colorado this year, and this one has really hit home. My deepest condolences go out to his wife Sara, sons Jack and Peter, and the rest of his family and wide circle of friends who have been affected. Here is the preliminary report.
Weather and Snow
No new snow has fallen since yesterday morning when Gold Basin reported 5" of new, relatively high density snow. SW winds yesterday blew in the moderate range along ridge tops. They'll be on the increase today, with a frontal passage from the next storm system expected this afternoon. Things could get a bit wild with intense periods of snowfall and graupel, and strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Expected snow totals aren't too impressive however with 4"-6" possible by tomorrow morning, most of it coming later this afternoon and evening. 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's and that's where they'll remain today.
Dave Garcia and Reed Kennard were up yesterday and reported fast and fun turning and riding on the dense, new snow. Read their observation here.
Got Rime? Dave Garcia photo.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With increasing SW winds, and snow in the forecast, be on the lookout for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-SE. New wind drifts will cover old, and avalanches up to 3' deep will be possible on steep, wind loaded terrain. You can recognize wind drifted slopes by their smooth, rounded, or "fat" appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most of the instability in yesterday's storm snow has likely settled out, but remain on the lookout for dense, cohesive slabs 6" or more inches thick if you find yourself in steeper terrain today. A quick hand pit will tell you if they exist. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees where slabs are present.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though it's been getting harder to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer, a poor snowpack structure still exists in many areas. The most suspect areas are steep, rocky slopes facing NW-NE-E, but other areas with a shallower snowpack also remain suspect. This includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Any avalanches triggered on a persistent weak layer would be large and dangerous.
Additional Information
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.