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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Sunday morning, March 24, 2024
Snow started falling around 4 a.m. and will hopefully keep accumulating today. Even though winds were decreasing this morning, they blew strong from the south overnight and should increase again as they swing around to the north this afternoon.
For these reasons, the avalanche danger should rise to MODERATE today above treeline where you should be looking for soft slabs of wind drifted snow. Near and below treeline, the danger is LOW.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road should be mostly clear of snow, and I suspect it will remain mostly frozen today (ie - not muddy).
Grooming: The last grooming was on Wednesday and conditions have gotten a bit rough.
Support the UAC website backend platform rebuild to ensure the ongoing security of the website and the data stored on the site rebuild by donating to our spring campaign. Save lives by making a donation today! HERE
Thanks to everyone who attended the amazing films of the Banff Film Festival on Thursday and Friday nights!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 168" Depth at Gold Basin 57"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 10 mph gusting to 20 mph Temp 17° F Percent of Normal: 114%
Weather
No snow fell overnight, but snowfall started this morning around 4 a.m. with 1.5" of new snow on the Gold Basin storm board as of 6 a.m. Temperatures cooled quite a bit last night and range from 27 degrees F at the Geyser Pass TH to 17 degrees on Pre-Laurel Peak at 11,400'. Winds yesterday blew from the south 25-35 mph and began easing this morning as snow started falling.
Today's weather forecast is a little tricky as winds slowly shift direction coming from the south this morning, then from the west around noon, and finally increasing again and blowing from the northwest later this afternoon. Snowfall today is anyone's guess, but mine is just a few more inches falling. The NWS is calling for 6-10 inches today. Instability in the atmosphere combined with daytime heating common in the spring should lead to pretty good convection (upward movement of the air) that could ramp up precip in isolated spots. Fingers crossed that things line up over the La Sals.
General Conditions
Recent weather has melted and refrozen the snow surface on most slopes except upper elevation N and NW facing. Tim and Lance provide a great overall summary of snow and avalanche conditions in their ob HERE. Sam Van Wetter found similar conditions on Thursday.
In spotty locations near treeline on northerly facing slopes, there is a very obvious faceted layer buried about 2 feet deep. This layer has only produced one avalanche twelve days ago and would be something to look for or consider after descending from upper elevations into steeper, partially open slopes near treeline.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
After a good avalanche cycle involving new snow and wind drifted snow (and two deeper slides) last weekend, the main avalanche activity during sunny weather this past week was loose wet avalanches on west facing slopes. Now the snowpack should be frozen solid.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If snow keeps falling this morning, watch for freshly formed soft slabs of wind drifted snow. Winds have been blowing from the south and should slowly be moving around the compass today which could drift the new snow onto a variety of aspects.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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