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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, March 20, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE but the possibility of triggering a deadly avalanche 2'-3' deep on a buried persistent weak layer remains very real. This weak layer is present on all slopes facing W-N-E. These avalanches can be triggered at all elevations but areas of heightened concern are on steep, northerly facing slopes right around treeline. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern.
A MODERATE danger also exists for human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Gusty, erratic winds on Thursday deposited fresh drifts on all aspects. They're getting harder to trigger but remain on the lookout for unstable wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, and rocky outcrops. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath.
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Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt, mud, and patches of packed snow. It gets sloppier as the days warm up. All wheel drive and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: The road into Gold Basin was groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth at Gold Basin 57" Wind S 20-30 G45 Temp 32F
High clouds are moving in ahead of a long wave trough approaching from the west. Clouds and SW winds will be on the increase today with high temps in the mid 30's. Best chance for snow will come this evening with 1"-3" possible. After the storm passes winds will shift to northerly and we'll see mostly sunny but blustery conditions on Monday. Dry and gradually warming conditions are in store for then upcoming week.
Snowpack
Exposed slopes have taken a beating from both sun and wind but soft snow can still be found on sheltered, northerly aspects. Blowing snow on Thursday created fresh drifts up to a foot deep on leeward slopes. Cross loading was also a factor and drifts could be found on all aspects on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub-ridges or rock outcrops. These wind slabs have now mostly stabilized, but if triggered they could still knock you off your feet or carry you over a cliff band.
The buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the Jan-Feb high pressure remains the primary concern and it is still capable of producing dangerous, human triggered avalanches over two feet deep on all slopes facing the north side of the compass. I spent some time yesterday digging in the snow below treeline between 10,000' and 10,500' and found similar conditions to what I found on Thursday at 11'000'.
Snow and Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Recent Avalanches
I'm sorry to report another avalanche fatality in Colorado. This one involved two skiers north of Steamboat Springs. Here is the preliminary report.
On Thursday, a lone snowboarder was killed in an avalanche in the neighboring San Juan Mountains of Colorado, near Trout Lake on a steep, rocky, NW facing slope. Here is the preliminary report.
Skiers and riders also continue to trigger avalanches in Northern Utah. We have a similar snowpack as these other regions. The only thing preventing accidents down here are fewer numbers and the so far relative restraint of the users. My conversations with you all in the parking lot have been heartening. Thank you for your awareness and for keeping it dialed back.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow exists on W-N-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2' -3' thick. The weakest snow can be found on northerly aspects right around treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. Stability test show that avalanches are becoming harder to trigger on this weak layer, but the bottom line is that attempting to outsmart this avalanche problem is a dangerous proposition. Likely trigger points include areas of shallow snow, slope margins, rocky outcroppings, and steep convex roll overs. If you are of the mindset to begin creeping into avalanche terrain keep in mind that signs of instability will no longer be obvious but that is not necessarily an indication of stability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong northerly winds on Thursday formed fresh wind drifts up to a foot deep. Although S and W facing slopes were the primary deposition zones, cross loading allowed drifts to form on northerly facing slopes as well. Remain on the look out for unstable drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcrops. Wind slabs will be more stubborn to release today, and they are mostly shallow, but they have added complexity to the snowpack, and if triggered they could knock you off your feet, or even worse, lead to the release of a slab on the buried persistent weak layer. Recent drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Scalloped or rippled surfaces are also signs of wind loading. Avoid steep slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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