A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow exists on W-N-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2' -3' thick. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below and the weak layer is easy to locate with your shovel. In his travels this week, Dave Garcia observed signs of strengthening in this weak layer as well as areas where it is still possible to trigger an avalanche and there's the rub. The weakest snow can be found on northerly aspects right around treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. The bottom line is that attempting to outsmart this avalanche problem is a dangerous proposition. Likely trigger points include areas of shallow snow, slope margins, rocky outcroppings, and steep convex roll overs. If you are of the mindset to begin creeping into avalanche terrain keep in mind that signs of instability will no longer be obvious but that is not necessarily an indication of stability.

This graphic shows the correlation between avalanche accidents and the danger rating. Regardless of whether it is a rising or falling danger, most accidents occur during the transition between Considerable and Moderate danger.