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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Thursday morning, March 14, 2024
Overnight, winds out of the NW whipped up a fresh round of drifts in alpine terrain. Above treeline, in the wind zone, it is POSSIBLE to trigger avalanches in recently formed soft slabs of wind-drifted snow and the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Hard slabs of wind-drifted snow that formed on Monday exist on Northerly facing slopes in alpine terrain. While the likelihood is decreasing, it remains POSSIBLE to trigger one of these older, hard slabs. All other slopes have a LOW danger.
On shady slopes, near treeline and below, we are tracking a weak layer of faceted snow that exists about 10 inches below the surface. The distribution of this layer is spotty at best, but it is found in steep, sparsely treed, Northerly facing terrain. As snow stacks up over the next few days, and the wind blows, this layer is capable of producing avalanches.
An incoming storm will cause the avalanche danger to rise late this afternoon and into Friday. Savvy backcountry travelers will be stepping-back and reassessing changing conditions as the storm develops.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is not plowed. Expect to find 6 inches of snow on the road.
Grooming: Trails are not groomed
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Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 6" 72 Hour Snow 6" Season Total Snow 147" Depth at Gold Basin 57"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 13-18 Temp 9° F Percent of Normal: 101%
Weather
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains beginning at 12 PM Thursday and lasting through 6 AM Saturday. Heavy snow is expected above 7,000'. It looks to me like the bulk of the storm will kick in late tonight. This morning, under scattered skies, it is 9 degrees in Gold Basin. Look for increasing clouds, a high temperature of 20 degrees, and chances for light snow showers. Winds are currently light out of the NE and will shift to the ESE and blow 10-15 MPH. Winds will be on the increase tonight. Tomorrow the winds shift to the SE and will blow 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH. The heaviest snowfall will occur during these peak winds on Friday into Saturday. A foot of new snow by Saturday seems likely. We should see a slight break in the weather on Sunday.
General Conditions
Wednesday morning we received 6 inches of new snow with very little wind. Skiing and riding conditions were greatly improved by the new snow. I found really fun "dust on crust" conditions on the solar aspects, and excellent soft, shallow powder riding on Northerly aspects. 6 inches of new snow at 0.7" SWE and almost no wind did not increase the avalanche hazard on Wednesday. Overnight, there was a 6-hour period when winds out of the NW blew hard enough to blow and drift snow, and you may encounter soft slabs of wind-drifted snow above treeline. If you are poking around in alpine terrain, be aware that hard slabs of wind-drifted snow formed on Monday. These hard slabs are covered up by the new snow and will be hard to detect. They should be mostly settled out by today, but it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on these older hard slabs.
Additionally, we have been tracking a weak layer of faceted snow in the upper pack. This layer is buried about 10 inches below the surface. We have been finding this very weak snow on some Northerly facing slopes near treeline and below. The distribution of this layer is spotty at best, but it seems to be popping up in isolated areas of steep, sparsely treed terrain. This layer should be on your radar because it is very sensitive, and as slabs build over the next few days, this weak layer could show its hand and produce more avalanches. Given its high sensitivity, expect collapsing and cracking to be associated with this layer. Be sure to read my reports from both Tuesday and Wednesday, as I have been hunting around for this layer. It is also worth your time to read the report of the avalanche listed below, as there is a discussion of this layer in that report as well.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Tuesday, a skier triggered this small avalanche of wind-drifted snow. The avalanche was 1 foot deep and about 25 feet wide, failing on the very weak layer of facets described above. This is a NE facing slope at 10,500'. Click here for more information about this avalanche. Avalanches on this layer are more the exception than the rule right now, but this layer needs to be on your radar because we are about to build a slab with snow and wind in the coming days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds out of the Northwest blew strong enough to move snow around for about a 6-hour period last night. With six inches of medium-density snow available for transport, I would expect to find recently formed soft slabs of wind-drifted snow around the compass above treeline. Wind slabs are most reactive to the weight of a skier right after they form. Look for and avoid any fat, wavy looking, rounded pillows of snow.
Lingering hard slabs exist in alpine terrain from Monday's moderate to strong Southerly winds. While pockety in nature, you are most likely to find them on Northerly-facing slopes above treeline. The tricky thing is, these hard slabs are now covered by 6 inches of new snow and they will be hard to detect. If I was poking around in the alpine today, I would constantly assess what is beneath me. Dig down and look for a slab beneath the new snow. Hard slabs of wind-drifted snow often sound hollow and drum-like, and have a tendency to allow you to get far out onto them before breaking above you.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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