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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, March 13, 2022
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet deep are likely. It's not yet time to go big down here so keep your aspirations low if you are planning a trip to the La Sals. A MODERATE danger for triggering this type of avalanche exists on W facing slopes. Most S facing terrain has LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road on Monday. We've had a few inches of snow since then but it's mostly packed in from traffic. All wheel drive and good tires are still recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed since 4"-6" fell Wed night.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth at Gold Basin 60" Wind S 15-20 Temp 25F
I hope you got up to the mountains yesterday and enjoyed the beautiful weather as it's not going to be so nice today. A fast moving storm system will clip by to the north bringing increasing clouds and blustery SW winds blowing in the 20-25 mph range with gusts as high as 40 along ridgetops. We'll see a slight chance for snow tonight before the storm moves on and winds shift to the NW. Monday and Tuesday look dry and sunny followed by another system moving into the region on Wednesday. This one doesn't look particularly promising but we may get a refresh of a few inches.
Snowpack
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in all zones throughout Utah, and most of Colorado. This is due to a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed near the snow surface during the extended dry period of Jan-Feb. This faceted weak layer now sits beneath a slab 2'-3' deep. In my travels with forecaster Brett Kobernik on the Manti-Skyline on Friday, we met a party of snowmobilers who had remotely triggered a very large avalanche from below the slope. Yesterday, Brett and Trent from the SLC office were able to intentionally trigger numerous avalanches failing on this weak layer and at least one snowmobiler was lucky to escape a large slide that he triggered. Our snowpacks share similarities with the primary difference being that we are a little further out from the last loading event. These are unusual conditions for this time of year. Time heals all wounds but I'm afraid this one is taking awhile, and the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a steep, northerly facing slope remains very real.
Travis Nauman and Nate Ament were out covering ground yesterday. They reported a mixed bag of spring conditions from sun crusts to "hot powder," to cold and dry in sheltered areas. They also noted some isolated wind slabs near treeline. Read their observation here.
Snow and Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Recent Avalanches
It was an active day throughout the state for human triggered avalanches with almost all of the other zones reporting accidents and near misses. I commend the restraint of our users who generally play it safe down here.
It's been a week since this natural avalanche occurred in Gold Basin, but human triggered avalanches of this magnitude remain likely. (Photo Tim Matthews).
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow exists on W-N-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2' -3' thick. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below where cold temperatures have helped preserve it. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track, but where it does exist, wind drifted snow has has helped to overload it. In our travels last week, we experienced localized collapsing near tree line and below on shady slopes and stability tests continue to produce failures in snow pits. As time goes on and things begin to stabilize, outward signs of instability will lessen and we'll be more tempted to venture into steeper terrain. But with the knowledge of what's underneath, it will be hard for me to justify going on to steep, northerly facing slopes for some time.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds throughout the week have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations and there are a few, unstable wind slabs lurking about. Increasing SW winds today may move some snow around, but most south faces are crusted over so there shouldn't be much loose snow available for transport. On northerly aspects, drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
Additional Information
The snowpit profile below provided by Dave Garcia illustrates our current problem. In snowpits we are looking for hard layers over weak layers. The further a layer is shown moving to the left, the harder it is. Note the soft layer of weak, faceted snow between 70 and 95 cms with harder snow above and below. This is our layer of concern.
A pit profile on a NW facing slope around 10,700 ft. The weak layer of facets is seen between 70-95 cm.
I've included this picture of the pit wall so you can better understand the snow profile graphic.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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