Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation NEW - Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Saturday, March 12, 2022
UNUSUAL AND DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH ALL ZONES IN UTAH AND MOST OF COLORADO!
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet deep are likely. It's not yet time to go big down here so keep your aspirations low if you are planning a trip to the La Sals. A MODERATE danger for triggering this type of avalanche exists on W facing slopes. Most S facing terrain has LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road on Monday. We've had a few inches of snow since then but it's mostly packed in from traffic. All wheel drive and good tires are still recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed since 4"-6" fell Wed night.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 6" Base Depth at Gold Basin 62" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 10F
It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains with sunny skies, light NW winds, and high temps creeping up to right around freezing at 10,000'. On Sunday, we'll see increasing clouds and breezy SW winds ahead of a storm system that will track through to the north. A similar system moves through around Wed though we may see a little better chance for snow from that one. Long range models show a progressive storm pattern through the end of the month so let's hope some of it comes our way.
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in all zones throughout Utah, and most of Colorado. This is due to a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed near the snow surface during the extended dry period of Jan-Feb. This faceted weak layer now sits beneath a slab 2'-3' deep. In my travels with forecaster Brett Kobernik on the Manti-Skyline yesterday we met a party of snowmobilers who had remotely triggered a very large avalanche from below the slope. Two others were also reported. This was after we felt we were seeing some improvement in the stability over there. We did some digging around and the truth is, our snowpack in the La Sals does not look a whole lot different. In fact, it may even be a little worse as it spans more elevation. In our travels earlier this week, Dave Garcia and I continued to experience collapsing as well as propagation in stability tests on this weak layer. These are unusual conditions for this time of year. Time heals all wounds but I'm afraid this one is taking awhile, and the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a steep, northerly facing slope remains very real.
Recent Avalanches
Go here for a list of all recent avalanche activity.
It's been a week since this natural avalanche occurred in Gold Basin, but human triggered avalanches of this magnitude remain likely. (Photo Tim Matthews).
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Last weekend's storm added just over 2" of water to our buried persistent weak layer and conditions remain dangerous. This weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow is present on W-N-E aspects and is now buried by 2' -3' of snow. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. In our travels this week, we've experienced localized collapsing near tree line and below on shady slopes and stability tests continue to produce failures in snow pits. As time goes on and things begin to stabilize, outward signs of instability will lessen and we'll be more tempted to venture into steeper terrain. But with the knowledge of what's underneath, it will be hard for me to justify going on to steep, northerly facing slopes for some time.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds throughout the week have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. Most of the instabilites have settled out, but on northerly aspects, drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
Additional Information
A pit profile on a NW facing slope around 10,700 ft. The weak layer of facets is seen between 70-95 cm.
I've included this picture of the pit wall so you can better understand the snow profile graphic.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >