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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 11, 2022
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet deep are likely. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W, but sun and warm temperature last week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on W facing slopes.
You will find a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
SW-S-SE facing terrain at and below treeline offers a LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road on Monday. We've had a few inches of snow since then but it's mostly packed in from traffic. All wheel drive and good tires are still recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed since 4"-6" fell Wed night.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 6" Base Depth at Gold Basin 72" Wind N 5-15 Temp -3F
Northerly winds were mostly light yesterday but they ramped up for a few hours in the evening blowing in the 20-30 mph range with gusts to 40. They are mostly light this morning and temps are frigid. Today look for clear skies, continued light northerly winds, and high temps at 10,000' approaching 20F. Dry weather for our area continues through the weekend and into mid next week.
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
Shifting winds this week have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects in the high country. Continue to be mindful of drifted areas, especially on northerly facing slopes where deeper drifts have added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer now sits beneath a slab 24"-30" deep and this remains our primary avalanche problem. This has created unusually dangerous conditions for this time of year, more like one would expect in the dead of winter. Soft snow conditions still abound in sheltered areas but it's imperative that we keep our slope angles down for safe enjoyment of this March powder. Sun exposed slopes are crusted over.
Recent Avalanches
Go here for a list of all recent avalanche activity.
This avalanche in Gold Basin happened over the weekend during the storm. This avalanche is large enough to bury a person. A human triggered avalanche today could be the same size. (Photo Tim Matthews).
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Last weekend's storm added just over 2" of water to our buried persistent weak layer and conditions remain dangerous. This weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow is present on W-N-E aspects and is now buried by 2' -3' of snow. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. In our travels this week, we've experienced localized collapsing near tree line and below on shady slopes and stability tests continue to produce failures in snow pits. As time goes on and things begin to stabilize, outward signs of instability will lessen and we'll be more tempted to venture into steeper terrain. But with the knowledge of what's underneath, it will be hard for me to justify ging on to steep, northerly facing slopes for some time.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds throughout the week have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. SW winds on Wednesday created fresh drifts on northerly facing slopes. In these areas, newly drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
Additional Information
A pit profile on a NW facing slope around 10,700 ft. The weak layer of facets is seen between 70-95 cm.
I've included this picture of the pit wall so you can better understand the snow profile graphic.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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