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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, March 10, 2022
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. Human triggered avalanches are likely failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet below the surface. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W, but sun and warm temperature last week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on W facing slopes.
You will find a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
SW-S-SE facing terrain at and below treeline offers a LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road on Monday. There may be a couple inches of snow on the road today. All wheel drive and good tires are still recommended.
Grooming: Grooming and packing has been ongoing through this stormy period. Today expect a few inches of snow on the trails.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 6" 72 Hour Snow 12" Base Depth at Gold Basin 72" Wind NW 10-15 Temp 9F
The mountains picked up 2"-6" of snow with some discrepancy between the Gold Basin SNOTEL and the storm stake. SW winds yesterday blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts to 40. They backed off overnight and shifted to the NW. We'll see clouds with a slight chance for snow this morning followed by partial clearing as the day wears on. High temps at 10,000' will be in the upper teens with blustery northerly winds adding to the chill. Clear skies are on tap starting tomorrow through the weekend with gradually warming temperatures.
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
Shifting winds have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects in the high country. On northerly facing slopes, deeper drifts have added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow that now sits beneath a slab 24"-30" deep. This has created unusually dangerous conditions for this time of year, more like one would expect in the dead of winter. Great, soft snow conditions still abound in sheltered areas but it's imperative that we keep our slope angles down for safe enjoyment of this March powder.
I was out with Dave Garcia on Tuesday and he made this video of our tour. South facing slopes took a hit from the sun that day but the snowpack information is still quite pertinent.
Recent Avalanches
Go here for a list of all recent avalanche activity.
This avalanche in Gold Basin happened over the weekend during the storm. This avalanche is large enough to bury a person. A human triggered avalanche today could be the same size. (Photo Tim Matthews).
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The weekend storm added just over 2" of water to our buried persistent weak layer and conditions remain dangerous. This weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow is present on W-N-SE aspects and is now buried by 2' -3' of snow. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below. We continued to find unstable conditions in our travels yesterday. We experienced collapsing as we traveled near tree line and below on shady slopes. Collapsing has been consistent all week in terrain features like steep, shaded areas in the trees. I would expect backcountry travelers to encounter more collapsing today in these places. Our stability tests continue to produce failures in snow pits. Yesterday we got an ECTP21 on a NNW slope around 10,500 ft. All of this is an indication that avalanche terrain is not to be trusted on the North side of the compass. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable but it is hard to track and riding low angle or Solar aspects is your best bet right now.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds over the past few days have blown and drtifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. SW winds yesterday created fresh drifts on northerly facing slopes. In these areas, newly drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persisrtent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
Additional Information
A pit profile on a NW facing slope around 10,700 ft. The weak layer of facets is seen between 70-95 cm.
I've included this picture of the pit wall so you can better understand the snow profile graphic.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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