Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 8, 2026

The avalanche danger is LOW and the snowpack is generally stable. Watch for unstable snow on isolated features or in areas of extreme terrain. There are three potential problems to look out for today:

  • Dry loose avalanches of weak surface snow on steep, shady slopes.
  • Isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow on leeward slopes above treeline.
  • Wet loose avalanches on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Check out this recent blog post from Forest Service UAC Director Paige Pagnucco Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem.

Drew Hardesty has a new blog titled "The Greatest Rain on Earth."

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is down to the dirt down low while sections of packed snow and ice remain above. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails last Monday.

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 27"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10-15 Temp: 24°F

Weather

The ridge of high pressure that has dominated the region looks like it will finally begin to break down this week. Details remain murky but at the very least, a change is afoot. Today and tomorrow remain sunny and very warm before a messy pattern takes over on Tuesday. Our first chance for snow comes on Wednesday but with major discrepancies on timing and coverage. The long range looks active but not without a fair amount of model disagreement. Stay tuned and hope for the best.

General Conditions

It felt like April, or even May in the mountains yesterday as I wandered around the Warner Lake area. Temperatures were frighteningly warm and snow cover was thin at 9500 feet. By now I don't need to tell you any of this but the high peaks have been blasted by the wind leaving scoured and crusted surfaces, while south facing slopes are melting out. Remarkably, you can still get around fairly easily and the intrepid are finding good turns in soft "recycled powder" on sheltered shady slopes. In these areas, the snowpack has faceted all the way through to the ground but in addition to providing soft snow for skiing and riding, it's also very prone to sluffing and creating dry loose avalanches. Be mindful of your terrain choices as you manage this hazard.

With soaring temperatures, we may see some loose wet avalanche activity on sun exposed slopes. Although many south aspects are melted off, west facing slopes that have snow will get particularly warm this afternoon.

Haystack Mountain showing all the available conditions. Wind blasted north face above treeline, southwest face melting out to the rocks, and sheltered near treeline terrain where the snowpack is faceted through.

See all recent observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

As always, low danger doesn't mean no danger and mountain travel over snow always has some risk. Here are potential problems to look out for today:

Dry loose avalanches in weak snow on shady slopes. These avalanches involve unconsolidated, sugary facets that can easily sluff on steep terrain. While these slides are unlikely to be large enough to fully bury a person, they can release easily and accelerate quickly, running fast and far downslope. As they move, they may gouge into the snowpack, picking up additional snow and gaining enough speed and mass to easily knock a skier or rider off their feet. The real hazard comes from the consequences of being swept into a tree or over a cliff. A small slide in the wrong place could result in serious injury. Carefully consider what lies beneath you before committing to steep terrain, and manage your exposure by traveling one at a time and avoiding slopes where a loss of balance would have high consequences.

Isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow near ridgelines. While previously formed wind slabs have generally proven stubborn and unreactive, there is always some potential for small, shallow slabs to develop in alpine terrain. These slabs are most likely to be found just below ridgelines, along convex rollovers, and in terrain features such as gullies and the lee sides of sub-ridges. Some of these drifts may be sitting on underlying weak and faceted snow, increasing the chance for a shallow, human-triggered avalanche. Any avalanche that occurs would likely be small, but could still knock a person off their feet or push them into hazardous terrain. Be alert for signs of recent wind loading, such as smooth, rounded snow pillows or stiff, hollow-sounding slabs, and use caution when traveling in exposed, wind-affected terrain.

Wet loose avalanches on sun exposed slopes. As the day heats up we may see some loose wet activity. Like dry loose avalanches, these should be relatively small but they could take you for a ride. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

What happened to our persistent weak layer problem? To be sure, there are plenty of weak faceted layers in the snowpack. In fact, on most shady slopes near treeline and below, the snowpack is faceted all the way through to the ground. Although very weak, this structure is missing is an over-riding slab. We have to have a slab and a weak layer to have a problem. Above treeline, isolated hard slabs still exist over weak faceted snow, but over time these layers adjust to the stress of the load and they become "dormant." This does not mean they have gone away. A new snow load has the potential to reactivate these weak layers, and in the case of our current snowpack, it's all but certain that we will again have a persistent weak layer problem when snow returns.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.