UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, December 31, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for human triggered avalanches within the new snow. Depending on snowfall rates or an increase in wind we could see the danger rise to CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation slopes that face N-NE-E. Loose snow sluffs off of steep faces in these areas could pack a punch and you'll want to avoid being underneath them today. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for avalanches stepping down 2'-4' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Northerly facing slopes with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
The storm is upon us with Gold Basin reporting 3", and Geyser Pass Trailhead reporting 6" of new low density snow. Ridge top westerly winds are light and temps are in the single digits. Snow will continue through the day with another 3-5" possible. It's going to be cold today with high temps at 10,000' creeping into the low teens. NW winds will continue to be light. Snow showers should continue through tonight and linger into the new year with another 2"-4" possible by tomorrow. Things dry out by Wednesday.
With light winds and new snow, today should be a great day for powder skiing. With the lack of wind I'm not anticipating a significant rise in the avalanche danger though loose sluffs within the new snow will be a concern. If winds increase however, you will need to be alert to a corresponding increase in danger as the new snow is transported into drifts.
Nate Ament and company were out yesterday and provided this excellent observation.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I haven't heard of or observed any avalanche activity since Christmas. You can read about the most recent activity here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be the primary concern today. With the lack of wind, most of these slides should be manageable as shallow, loose snow sluffs. Some natural sluffing may occur off the high, steep, N-NE-E faces where they could gather a significant amount of snow and momentum. For this reason, today is a good day to stay out from under this type of terrain. If winds increase, they will start to drift the new snow into sensitive soft slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Be alert to areas of drifting snow and signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid steep slopes where this is present.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are slowly adding incremental doses of weight to persistent weak layers in the snowpack. This is slowly increasing the likelihood for human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep breaking down into weak, sugary, faceted snow. The danger is most acute in areas of steep, rocky, north facing terrain that has a weak, sugary, underlying snowpack, and I'm going to continue to avoid those areas.
General Announcements
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.