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Observation: Moab

Observation Date
12/30/2018
Observer Name
Nate Ament
Region
Moab
Location Name or Route
Gold Basin-Tele Gold
Red Flags
Red Flags
Cracking
Collapsing
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Wind Drifted Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
Increasing westerly winds on the front of the upcoming storm could transport some of the lighter, loose surface snow. We observed several small, older releases above and around the area we skied, but none of them triggered a larger slide.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
We experienced several collapses and minor cracking on NE aspects in the 25-28 degree range. Additional snowpack stress from the expected snowfall totals tonight and tomorrow could cause similar collapses to propagate further in these layers. Our CT26 Q2 test results show that these persistent weaknesses are still reactive.
Snow Profile
Aspect
Northeast
Elevation
10,700'
Comments
With heavy snow and wind in the forecast these areas will likely become less stable. Gold Basin backcountry travelers will want to be well aware of the new wind deposits above them as they move through the valley bottom. Might be a good time to stick to the safe tree runs and meadows until after the new storm snow settles out.
Forecaster comments: Nate's forecast for Considerable danger today would be wholly accurate if winds had come in with the new snow. Remarkably they are light and are forecasted to remain so I'm inclined to stick with Moderate danger. Any increase in winds however will certainly result in a corresponding increase in the avalanche danger.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates