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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 29, 2020
A foot or more of new snow has added a significant load to our weak, underlying snowpack and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, northerly facing slopes that had a foot or more of pre-existing snow. In these areas, new and wind drifted snow has piled on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This persistent weak layer problem will be with us for the foreseeable future and though overall low coverage will make it difficult to access these areas, steep, northerly facing slopes should be avoided. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences. South-facing slopes have a LOW to MODERATE danger for avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow due to spotty or non-existent prior snow cover.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road will not be plowed today. Expect it to be snow-covered and drifted with up to a foot of snow at the parking lot. Grand County plans to plow tomorrow so expect the gate to be closed in the morning while plowing is in progress.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) will be up grooming today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 12" 72 Hour Snow 12" Base Depth in Gold Basin 29" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 13F
A foot of new snow has fallen at both the Geyser Pass Trailhead and in Gold Basin with 1" of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent). SW winds cranked in the 20-40 mph range throughout the bulk of the storm yesterday before backing off around 10:00 p.m. last night. We'll see lingering showers this morning with a couple more inches possible. Skies will be mostly cloudy, mostly light SW winds will shift to the NW later today, and high temps at 10,000' will be in the mid-teens. Wednesday should bring sunny skies, followed by increasing clouds and a slight chance for snow on Thursday as yet another system clips by to the north. The long-range shows nothing significant for us as of yet.
The malfunctioning stake at Gold Basin appears to have a reliable total as of 6:00 a.m. We have a new sensor being calibrated as we speak and will get it installed ASAP!
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion
A foot of new snow with an inch of water weight has been added to our fragile snowpack. On northerly aspects, layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow exist on top of a slick, hard melt-freeze layer. Overall coverage is extremely thin and prior to this storm, snow depths ranged from about 6" at Geyser Pass Trailhead to 18" at Geyser Pass. Most south-facing slopes were bare. The new snow will hide a myriad of obstacles such as rocks and deadfall that lurk just beneath the surface, and we still don't have quite enough for serious, off-trail recreation.
For a recap of the seasonal weather history check out this blog post by Chris Benson.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A foot of new snow with 1" of water weight has been added to our fragile snowpack. On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, the snowpack has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. This has created a persistent weak layer problem that will stick with us for some time. Although avalanche terrain is very difficult to access at this time, human-triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. As additional snow begins to make these areas more accessible, you'll want to avoid all steep, northerly facing terrain for the foreseeable future.
This video was taken a week ago, and it illustrates the poor snowpack structure that now sits underneath the new snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow exist on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed terrain. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In most cases, a triggered wind drift will most likely step down into a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Avoid steep slopes with areas of wind drifted snow.
Additional Information
For an in-depth look at how the early season snow history has lead to these conditions, check out this blog post from Chris Benson.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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