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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 28, 2020
An approaching storm system will increase the avalanche danger over the next 24 hours as new and wind drifted snow threaten to overload an underlying, weak snowpack. The avalanche danger is MODERATE today, but will likely increase to CONSIDERABLE sometime tonight and into tomorrow on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. In these areas fresh wind drifts will develop on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick above the Trans La Sal traihead. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed over the weekend.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 17" Wind SSE 15-20 G30 Temp 22F
The first significant storm system we've seen in a while is moving into the region and it's looking a little better for us than it has over the past few days. There are still a few factors keeping this from being a slam dunk, but we should see at least 6" of snow with more optimistic projections up to around a foot by Tuesday. Look for light snow showers to begin mid-morning with 2"-4" possible today. Southerly winds will be on the increase averaging 20-25 mph along ridgetops with gusts to 40 mph. High temps will be in the mid 20's. The main energy will arrive this evening with snowfall continuing through tonight. 4"-7" are possible. Snow will taper off by Tuesday morning as the storm exits the area.
The malfunctioning stake at Gold Basin may make initial snow totals hard to read. We have a new sensor being calibrated as we speak and will get it installed ASAP!
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion
The approaching storm system should bring enough snow for our first significant rise in avalanche danger. The current snowpack structure is very poor and it won't take much to overload it. Layers of weak, sugary, faeeted snow exist on top of a slick, hard melt-freeze layer. Overall coverage is extremely thin and snow depths range from about 6" at Geyser Pass Traihead to 18" at Geyser Pass. Most south-facing slopes are bare. The new snow won't be enough to travel off of roads or groomed trails, and the fresh snow will hide a myriad of obstacles such as rocks and deadfall.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, the snowpack has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. As new and wind drifted snow accumulates, it will begin to overload this fragile underlying snowpack. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Avalanches failing on this weak layer will become increasingly more likely as snow accumulates and this problem will persist into the foreseeable future. Avalanche terrain is very difficult to access at this time, but once we have enough snow to venture into these areas, you'll want to avoid all steep, northerly facing terrain.
Additional Information
For an in-depth look at how the early season snow history has lead to these conditions, check out this blog post from Chris Benson.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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