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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 27, 2020
A MODERATE avalanche danger still exists on steep northerly facing slopes where isolated wind drifts or shallow soft slabs are overlying layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. or that feel hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
An approaching storm system on Monday may produce enough snow for the first significant rise in avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) last groomed trails on Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 18" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 11F
Look for developing clouds today and a chance for a few showers this afternoon as a weak storm system passes through. Light to moderate NW winds will shift to the SW later today. High temps will be in the mid 20's. After that, all eyes are on an approaching storm system that should affect our area tomorrow through Tuesday. Unfortunately, this does not look like the storm that will put us in the game with the bulk of the energy looking to favor the southeastern San Juans. A split and a potential dry slot are complicating things for our area and models are currently showing 4"-9" out of this system. A transitory ridge will build on Wednesday followed by another northern shortwave on Thu-Fri.
If you've noticed that the Gold Basin snow stake has gone haywire, don't fear, a new sensor is on the way!
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion
The approaching storm system may bring enough snow for our first significant rise in avalanche danger. The current snowpack structure is very poor and it won't take much to overload it. Layers of weak, sugary, faeeted snow exist on top of a slick, hard melt-freeze layer. In some areas, a shallow, soft slab has already developed on top of the weak snow, and signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing are being experienced. Overall coverage is extremely thin and snow depths range from about 6" at Geyser Pass Traihead to 18" at Geyser Pass. Travel off of packed roads or groomed trails is not recommended.
Recent Avalanches
Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry down in Monticello sent in this photo of an avalanche he remotely triggered on a steep, northerly facing slope near 10,000' earlier this week. This is exactly the type of setup we are concerned with right now. In spite of the low snow conditions, the existing, underlying snow is very weak, and anywhere that a slab exists on top, is primed and ready for an avalanche.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, the snowpack has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. In exposed areas, stiff wind drifts exist on top of this weak snow, while in other areas, a shallow, soft slab has formed. Avoid steep terrain that has a smooth, rounded appearance, or that feels hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability.
Additional Information
For an in-depth look at how the early season snow history has lead to these conditions, check out this blog post from Chris Benson.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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