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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 26, 2020
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep northerly facing slopes where isolated wind drifts or shallow soft slabs are overlying layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. or that feel hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) last groomed trails on Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 18" Wind WNW 5-15 Temp 21F
Look for mostly sunny and breezy conditions in the mountains today with moderate SW winds and high temps at 10,000' near 30 degrees. Clouds will move in tonight as a weak system clips by to the north. Sunday looks partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Still holding on to the promise of hope for snow on Tuesday. It's not quite looking like the major event that we need, maybe around 6" at this time, bu we'll take what we get.
If you've noticed that the Gold Basin snow stake has gone haywire, don't fear, a new sensor is on the way!
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion
Overall coverage is still too thin for skiing and riding off of packed roads. Snow depths range from about 6" near the Geyser Pass Trailhead with up to 2' at upper elevations. The current snowpack structure is very poor. In some areas, a shallow, soft slab has developed on top of the weak snow, and signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing are being experienced. This setup does not bode well for any future snowload. For an in-depth look at how the early season snow history has lead to these conditions, check out this blog post from Chris Benson.
Recent Avalanches
Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry down in Monticello sent in this photo of an avalanche he remotely triggered on a steep, northerly facing slope near 10,000' earlier this week. This is exactly the type of setup we are concerned with right now. In spite of the low snow conditions, the existing, underlying snow is very weak, and anywhere that a slab exists on top, is primed and ready for an avalanche.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, the snowpack has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. In exposed areas, stiff wind drifts exist on top of this weak snow, while in other areas, a shallow, soft slab has formed. Avoid steep terrain that has a smooth, rounded appearance, or that feels hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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