Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Saturday, December 29, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow. Look for fresh drifts at upper elevations on slopes facing NW-W-SE. Deeper drifts that formed during the Christmas storm are also still a concern. They'll be stubborn, but if triggered, they'll pack a punch. You'll find these older wind drifts on slopes that face N-NE-E. In these same areas there is also an isolated, or MODERATE danger for avalanches stepping down 2'-4' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Areas with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear, westerly ridge top winds are light, and temperatures are sub-zero. It's going to be a brilliant but cold day up there today capping off a week with some of the best conditions of the season. Today look for mostly sunny skies, light NW winds, and high temperatures in the low teens. Sunday should see mostly sunny skies, with clouds beginning to develop by the afternoon ahead of the next storm system to affect the region. We could see 2"-4" by Monday.
Above treeline, pesky ENE winds yesterday blew in the 20 mph range for several hours. This will have affected the snow surface a bit in exposed, upper elevation terrain as well as deposited fresh wind drifts in odd places. Nate Ament and company were out and about yesterday and reported that their tracks from the day before had been filled in by fresh deposits of wind drifted snow. They had skied a NW aspect at around 11,000'. Read his report here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Nate Ament sent in this photo from yesterday. Note the ripples of freshly deposited, wind drifted snow in the upper left quarter of the photo. He and others had tracked out the slope the day before.
Recent Avalanches
I got up into Horse Creek on Wednesday to take a look at some natural activity that occurred Christmas night. Though the slides were certainly not anything you would want to be involved with, I was able to determine that they were confined to the most recent snow and did not break day into underlying facets. The video below describes what I found. You can also get the full descriptions here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Slab avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain your primary concern today. ENE winds yesterday blew just enough to move snow around at upper elevations, and fresh drifts were formed in odd places on the south and west sides of the compass. They'll be more stable today, but keep an eye out for fresh deposits identified by their smooth rounded, "pillowy" appearance, and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. Deeper drifts that formed during the Christmas storm are also still a concern. They'll be stubborn, but if triggered, they'll pack a punch. You'll find these older wind drifts on slopes that face N-E-E
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most recent snow does not seem to have reactivated persistent weak layers as much I had expected however, the underlying snowpack structure is poor, and I still experienced a few collapses this week. The bottom line is that though it's increasingly unlikely, it's still possible to trigger an avalanche 2'-4' deep breaking down into weak, sugary, faceted snow. The danger is most acute in areas of steep, rocky, north facing terrain that has a weak, sugary, underlying snowpack, and I'm going to continue to avoid those areas.
Additional Information
Grooming info:
Trails were groomed on Friday.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.