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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, December 28, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow. Look for fresh shallow drifts at upper elevations on slopes facing NW-W-SE. Drifts that formed over Christmas will be stubborn today, but human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes that face N-NE-E. In these same areas there is also an isolated possibility for avalanches to step down 2'-4' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Areas with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche.
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Special Announcements
Grand County plowed the road yesterday.
The new UAC IOS mobile app is now available on the app store. Check out the new "My Weather" feature.
Check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class.
Weather and Snow
The mountains picked up another inch or two of low density snow over the past 24 hours putting a minor refresh on what has been some of the best conditions of the season. The bad news is that the mostly light SE winds overnight have made a shift around to the east, and as veteran UAC forecaster Drew Hardesty says, "nothing good comes from an east wind." They are currently blowing in the 15-20 mph range and temps are bone chilling, hovering right around zero or in the low single digits. In other words, it's going to be cold up there today under mostly cloudy skies with frigid NE winds averaging 10-15 mph along ridge tops. A brief ridge will build over the area on Saturday before the next system moves in on Sunday.
Dave Garcia and company were out yesterday, check out his observation here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Lots of wind drifted terrain out there!
Recent Avalanches
I got up into Horse Creek yesterday to take a look at some natural activity that occurred Christmas night. Though the slides were certainly not anything you would want to be involved with, I was able to determine that they were confined to the most recent snow and did not break day into underlying facets. The video below describes what I found. You can also get the full descriptions here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Slab avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain your primary concern today. The NE winds don't look like they are going to get too out of hand but be alert to sensitive new wind drifts forming on the south and west sides of the compass at upper elevations. Deeper drifts that formed during the Christmas storm will be stubborn today, but if triggered, they'll pack a punch. I'd continue to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes that face N-NE-E.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most recent snow does not seem to have reactivated persistent weak layers as much I had expected however, the underlying snowpack structure is still very poor, and I still experienced a few collapses yesterday. The bottom line is that it's still possible to trigger an avalanche 2'-4' deep breaking down into weak, sugary, faceted snow. The danger is most acute in areas of steep, rocky, north facing terrain that has a weak, sugary, underlying snowpack, and I'm going to continue to avoid those areas.
Additional Information
Grooming info:
Trails were groomed yesterday but will have light snow on them today.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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