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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. On steep slopes above treeline, human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow are possible on all aspects.
On steep, northerly aspects, triggered slabs may step down into buried weak layers of sugary, faceted snow. We are in the early phase of a developing snowpack and it is shallow, weak, and untrustworthy. A ride in any avalanche, no matter how small, would be rugged in these conditions.
Low snow conditions exist and there are many obstacles such as rocks, stumps, and logs lurking just beneath the surface.
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Road Conditions: A huge shout out to Gavin Harrison for plowing the road! The surface remains soft and AWD with good tires are required.
Grooming: Summertime ranger and winter volunteer Ben Chicken groomed into Gold Basin and set classic track on Siunday. Thanks Ben!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 8" Season Total Snow 42" Base Depth at Gold Basin 25"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 15-20 G40 Temp 13˚ F
Weather
Ridgetop winds from the NW have been blowing steadily in the 20 mph range for about 36 hrs, and it looks like the trend will continue through today. Look for sunny skies and continued cold temps with highs at 10,000' in the upper teens. The future remains dry.
General Conditions
With the addition of last Saturday's 8" of medium density snow, we are beginning to develop a snowpack although it remains very shallow and weak. In our travels Sunday we did not observe any outward signs of instability such as cracking or whumphing, which was somewhat surprising after the recent load, but the underlying structure is poor and I don't trust it. In some areas, the pack is supportable under the most recent snow, while in others, it is possible to punch through to the ground. Additionally, rocks, stumps and dead fall are lurking everywhere. Sticking to roads, known grassy meadows, and low angle slopes remains the best strategy.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow are possible at upper elevations on all aspects today. NW winds are tricky in the La Sals and cross-loading is a factor, even on northerly aspects. Suspect all slopes that show signs of recent wind loading. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Triggered wind slabs have the potential to step down into weaker faceted layers. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There's no way around this, we are developing a persistent weak layer problem. Outward signs of instability may not be present, and stability tests are somewhat inconclusive, but the structure is poor, we've recently added an inch of water, and winds continue to blow and drift fresh slabs on top. Areas that have the most snow and that seem rideable, are also where you are likely to find trouble. We might as well develop the mindset that steep, northerly aspects are likely going to be off limits for awhile.
Additional Information
For the snow geeks out there, here is a profile of the above photo:
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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