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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 9, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep, north facing slopes where triggering a large, deep, and very dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible. The danger increases with elevation and wind loaded slopes are more suspect.
Though the likelihood of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche continues to trend downward, an avalanche of this magnitude would be un-survivable. Careful terrain choices and avoidance of steep, northerly facing terrain is the only guaranteed strategy.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: A few inches of new snow fell on the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead yesterday. It's mostly packed down from traffic but AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Matt from LUNA will be up grooming today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 47" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 7
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
A surprise 5" of new, low density snow materialized from the ether yesterday, and NW winds remained light. This provided a great refresh for conditions. High pressure builds over the region today and we'll see plenty of sunshine, light SW winds, and high temps in the mid to upper 20's. Dry and mostly sunny conditions continue through mid-week with the next chance for snow developing around Thursday.
Snowpack
It's been more than a week since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle and the odds of triggering a large avalanche continue to decrease each day. A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack, but snow pits and stability tests indicate that this weak layer is strengthening and becoming harder to affect. Nevertheless, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a steep northerly aspect. Likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or on steep convexities. In terrain such as this, the buried weak layer is more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Brian Sparks sent in this observation from Gold Basin yesterday where he noted a deep and strengthening snowpack. Reed Kennard and Ed Grote sent in this observation from Laurel Ridge.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's now been more than a week since the Dec 31 storm event that produced dozens of deep, hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack. Time, warmer temperatures, and compression from the load are helping to heal this weak layer, and snow pits and stability tests performed by myself and local observers indicate that it is gaining strength. Brian Sparks sent in this observation where he observed rounding and bonding of the weak, faceted grains in an area where the snowpack was 195 cm deep. Generally speaking, the deeper the snowpack, the stronger it is. This weak layer still remains a concern in areas where the snowpack is thin, and therefore much more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Photo illustrates strong slab over weak, October facets. Extended column tests produced no results and it's becoming harder for the weight of a skier or rider to affect this basal weak layer. Propagation saw tests however show that it is still possible for a slab to fail and propagate. Shallower snowpack areas are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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