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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 31, 2021
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. Incremental snow loading over the past week has stressed underlying persistent weak layers to their breaking point. The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep slopes facing N-E and deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches are certain in these areas. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, north facing slopes at treeline and below, and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills. Stay off of and out from under steep northerly facing terrain.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
Special Avalanche Bulletin
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST MONDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH INCLUDING THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE TO HIGH IN MANY AREAS
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST AND DEEP AND DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN.
WINTER BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD AVOID STEEP, AVALANCHE PRONE TERRAIN.
Special Announcements
I regret to inform everyone that recovery efforts are ongoing for an avalanche victim who was caught and buried near Square Top Mountain in Wasatch Range yesterday. More details as they come. Yesterday was quite active throughout the state with two more accidents reported. See this video from forecaster Brett Kobernik on the Manti-Skyline.
The Geyser Pass Road has not been plowed and up to 6" of snow fell on Friday night. Many vehicles made it up the road yesterday and it is getting packed in but 4x4 is required.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) will be up packing snow and grooming today. Follow LUNA on Instagram @luna_moab.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 12" Base Depth in Gold Basin 44" Wind NW 10 -15 Temp 8F
Yesterday's unreliable snow data turned out to be 12" of new, medium density snow in Gold Basin with an average of 6"-10" overall. Northwesterly winds were mostly light yesterday though they've increased slightly this morning. We should see some clouds move into the area tonight and into Monday as mid-level trough moves in toward the Pacific coast. This approaching system will bring us a chance for snow on Wednesday but models are currently showing some disagreement on the storm track.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Conditions are the best they've been all season but with fresh powder and sunny skies, they are also perfect for an avalanche accident. Incremental loading over the past week now totals more than 2' of snow at around 2" of water weight or snow water equivalent (SWE). This has proven to be too much for our weak and faceted snowpack. Sustained southerly winds mid-week built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of these weak layers and conditions are primed for deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches. Travis Nauman and Ed Grote were up yesterday and they reported widespread collapsing as well as reactive snow stability tests. Read their report here. In my own travels, I observed widespread collapsing, even at low elevations on steep road banks. I was also able to remotely trigger a large and unsurvivable avalanche. You can see my summary of the snowpack in the video below.
Recent Avalanches
Many natural avalanches have occurred over the past week as incremental loading has stressed our weak snowpack to the breaking point. A large, natural avalanche released on the Northeast face of Mount Tukno sometime Friday night, and yesterday I was able to remotely trigger a large avalanche into Horse Creek. Details in the video below.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent weak layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow are present on all north-facing aspects at all elevations. Slabs 2'-4' deep exist on top of these weak layers near treeline and above. Additionally, cold temperatures and a lack of snowfall for most of January has formed weak layers around the compass and elevation zones. With the recent snow, West, Southwest, and Southeast aspects now harbor dangerous slabs overlying weak faceted snow.
Additional Information
Our avalanche beacon training park is up and running for the season. Thanks to Moab Gear Trader and Talking Mountain Yurts for their support of this valuable resource!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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