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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 30, 2021
Snow continues to pile up and winds during the week built slabs on top of buried persistent weak layers maintaining dangerous avalanche conditions. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-E near and above treeline where slabs 2'-4' deep now overly buried persistent weak layers. Human triggered avalanches are likely, and natural avalanches are possible in these areas. Below treeline and on other aspects, the avalanche danger is MODERATE and human triggered avalanches involving the new snow are possible. Avalanches within the new snow can step down into buried weak layers causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills. Stay off of and out from under steep, northerly-facing avalanche terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road was plowed on Monday. Expect to find several inches of new snow on the road today.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Wednesday. Follow LUNA on Instagram @luna_moab.
Our avalanche beacon training park is up and running for the season. Thanks to Moab Gear Trader and Talking Mountain Yurts for their support of this valuable resource!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow ?" 72 Hour Snow ?" Base Depth in Gold Basin ?" Wind WNW 5-10 Temp 15F
I don't have reliable snowfall data this morning. Gold Basin has been all over the charts and is reporting 10". The Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead stopped reporting around midnight but it is showing 7"-8" of snow with .6" of snow water equivalent. This seems at least somewhat reliable. Southerly winds that have been cranking for the last three days finally backed off around 9:00 p.m. before they began shifting around to the WNW. We should see clearing skies today becoming mostly sunny. NW winds will be mostly light and high temps will be in the low 20's. High pressure builds over the next few days wiht the next storm system being advertised for mid-week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
It should be a beautiful day in the mountains with fresh snow softening some of the effects of this week's wind event. More than 2' of snow has fallen in the high country since last Friday though much of it has been blown and redistributed. Above treeline, large wind drifts and significant cross-loading has occurred on leeward aspects, ranging from west to north to east. Poor snowpack structure still plagues our mountains, with numerous persistent weak layers buried both underneath recent snow, as well as near the bottom of the snowpack. Strong winds have built stiff slabs on these weak layers and may be triggered by the weight of a skier or rider, especially in places where the slab is thin and weak.
Southerly winds on 1/27/2021 have cross-loaded many slopes above treeline on west, north, and east aspects.
Recent Avalanches
On Thursday we noted yet another natural avalanche that probably ran on 1/24/2021 on an east aspect near treeline in Colorado Bowl. Yesterday Matthew Cozart report several avalanches in the Abajos. Earlier this week, reports of natural avalanches including Exxon's Folly, Snaggletooth Ridge Tukno Shoulder , Horse Creek .
Colorado Bowl with crown and flank remnants in red. Much of this slope appeared to have filled back in after it probably ran on 1/24/201.
On Thursday, Chris Benson and I were able to trigger this test slope on a steep, easterly aspect around 10,800'. It appeared to be the combined storm snow of last weekend failing on buried near surface facets. This would corroborate Tim Mathews findings in his observation from 01/25. Many of the avalanches from the last cycle likely failed on this layer although Exxon's and the Snaggletooth Ridge avalanches failed deeper.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent weak layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow are present on all north-facing aspects at all elevations. Additionally, cold temperatures and a lack of snowfall for most of January has formed weak layers around the compass and elevation zones. With the recent snow, West, Southwest, and Southeast aspects now harbor dangerous slabs overlying weak faceted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be possible on all aspects on steep slopes that have more than about 6" of new snow. These may occur in the form of loose snow sluffs or as cohesive soft slab avalanches. Cracking is a sign of instability. Avalanches triggered in the new snow will likely step down into buried persistent weak layers causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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