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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 29, 2023
The song remains the same...
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on steep slopes above treeline. Strong southerly winds today will create fresh drifts on slopes that have primarily a north through easterly aspect. Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
In non-wind affected terrain the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are unlikely. They may still be possible in thinner snowpack areas, and in areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Work has been halted and the road is open through the weekend. Narrow spots still exist, use turnouts. Work will resume on Monday.
Grooming: LUNA has been actively grooming over the last few days and all trails are set with classic track.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 178" Base Depth at Gold Basin 73"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 20-25 G30 Temp 18F
Weather
Southerly winds have been on the increase overnight averaging 20 mph with gusts to 30 along ridgetops since 10:00 p.m. Under partly sunny skies, blustery conditions will continue today as a splitting storm system moves into the region. The northern Rockies remain in the bullseye for heavy snowfall today, while a closed low associated with the split trough moves through the Four Corners on Monday. Snow showers should begin around noon tomorrow with occassional periods of heavy snow. 3"-5" seem likely. We'll remain under a cold and unsettled NW flow through the week, but storm activity stays to the north.
General Conditions
Observers continue to find good, settled powder and mostly stable snow conditions out of the wind zone (see this observation from Tim Mathews and company). Above treeline the wind has been steadily scouring and crusting windward slopes while alternately drifting snow on to leeward aspects. Strong southerly winds today will continue to deposit fresh drifts on to northerly facing slopes. The overall snowpack is deep and strong with average depths ranging from 7'-9'. Deep avalanches, failing on the November persistent weak layer are unlikely but may still be possible in outlying areas where the snowpack is less than 5' deep, with the greatest likelihood exisitng in very steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Tim Mathews and company found good powder and stable conditions out of the wind zone. The terrain above is where you are likely to find unstable slabs of wind drifted snow. It also qualifies as steep, rocky, radical terrain with a potentially thinner snowpack.
For more snowpack information see a complete list of observations here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
A few small avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow have been observed over the past several days but have not been detailed. For a further list of avalanches see the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Steady winds throughout the week have kept the threat of human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow alive above treeline. Be on the lookout for unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges in wind affected terrain. Fresh drifts often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Older drifts that formed over the last few days have stiffened up and are now mostly stuck in place, but steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded, "fat" appearance should still be approached with caution. Consider the consequences of the terrain you are in.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The La Sal snowpack is now generally deep and mostly stable with the November persistent weak layer buried far below the surface. Snow pits dug to this depth show that the layer has gained strength, and that the overriding slab is very thick and strong. It is very unlikely that the weight of a skier or rider would trigger a deep avalanche but it still may be possible in outlying areas that have a combination of radical terrain and a thinner, weaker snowpack. If you are venturing into larger terrain, pull out your probe. If the snowpack is 150 cm, or about 5' deep or less, this is where you need to look closer. In these areas, a slab about 3' thick exists over the November PWL, and this structure indicates a higher likelihood for a human triggered avalanches.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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