Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, January 26, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists on all aspects above treeline where human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow are possible. Be on the lookout for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Cracking is a sign of instability.

On northerly aspects, a low probability/high consequence scenario remains for dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Thinner snowpack areas, and areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain are where you are most likely to find this problem.
Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road update: Bulldozer work is expected to continue through Thursday with the road re-opening on Friday.
Grooming: LUNA has been granted access to get up today, so trails should be in good shape for tomorrow's opening.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 4" 72 Hour Snow 9" Season Total Snow 178" Base Depth at Gold Basin 80"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak E 5-10 Temp -2

Weather
We remain under the influence of cool northwesterly flow. Look for mostly sunny skies, cold temperatures, and light to moderate northwesterly winds. We'll see a few clouds tomorrow and Saturday before a weak system to the north brings us a chanche for snow on Sunday.

General Conditions
9" of new snow has trickled in since Tuesday and conditions remain quite good below treeline. Shifting winds over the past several days have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects above treeline. Be on the lookout for unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges in wind affected terrain. The November persistent weak layer (PWL) was given a significant load test last week. We observed one large avalanche that failed on the weak layer. The odds of triggering this kind of avalanche with the weight of a skier or rider are unlikely, however it still may be possible in outlying areas that have a combination of radical terrain and a thinner, weaker snowpack.
Mike Lobeck was up on Gold Knob yesterday and sent in this observation. UAC Executive Director Chad Bracklesberg and I took sleds over to the east side of the range yesterday. See my report in the video below.
For more snowpack information see a complete list of observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since the one we observed last Thursday. For a complete list of avalanches see the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate winds around the compass and 9" of new snow Tuesday, has kept the threat of human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow alive on all aspects above treeline. Be on the lookout for unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges in wind affected terrain. Fresh drifts often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Older drifts that formed over the last few days have stiffened up and are now mostly stuck in place, but steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded, "fat" appearance should still be approached with caution. In very isolated, thinner snowpack areas, an avalanche triggered in the wind drifted snow could to step down to the November PWL causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If you've been following along, you know that The November persistent weak layer (PWL) has been gaining strength and is deeply buried in most areas. Prior to last week's storm event, the last round of avalanches failing on this weak layer was during the New Years storm cycle. Before putting this problem to bed so to speak, we wanted to see what the most recent load of heavy snowfall would do, and lo and behold, it produced a very large avalanche. Avalanche activity was not widespread, and stability tests indicate that the odds of a skier or rider triggering this kind of avalanche are unlikely, however it still may be possible in outlying areas that have a combination of radical terrain and a thinner, weaker snowpack, particularly on slopes facing the north side of the compass.
Photo illustrates what is now a thin weak layer of faceted snow about a meter below the surface. The weak layer used to be much thicker, and then snow beneath was much weaker and looser. Time, and compressive weight from above has helped to strengthen this layer, but it was still capable of producing an avalanche under the stress of a rapid, heavy load.
In most areas, the weak layer is deeply buried, and hence very difficult, if not impossible to affect by the weight of a skier or rider. The trick then, is to avoid areas where the snowpack is thinner such as in wind exposed terrain, along slope margins and near rocky outcrops, and in areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.