The most dangerous problem you will encounter out there is the possibility of a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer. You are most likely to encounter this on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E with the highest likelihood on N-NE-E aspects. The recent snow didn't appear to contain enough water weight to tip the scales but wind loading may do it. This is exactly what happened in the case of the large, snowmobile triggered avalanche in Dark Canyon on January 9.

If you've been following along by now you know we have a very poor snowpack structure where the pack is faceted entirely through. The Dark Canyon avalanche failed on facets beneath the Christmas Rain Crust (CRC), and we now have a new faceted layer to be concerned with immediately beneath the recent snow (see recent observations from myself, Chris Benson, and Travis Nauman). This layer is a bit tricky in that it hasn't formed everywhere. The last stretch of high pressure also saw a lot of wind from the northwest so many snow surfaces were crusted or blasted into hard wind board. This new faceted layer only formed in areas protected from the northwest winds. Slopes near tree line with an easterly component to their aspect are the most suspect. An avalanche failing on this layer could step down below the CRC and take out the entire season's snowpack.

Winds from the northwest will blow and drift snow on to slopes facing the east half of the compass today. Look for fresh drifting on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. The most dangerous slopes will be those facing N-NE-E. In these areas, human triggered wind slab avalanches may step down to a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche.

Avalanches involving the recent snow will be possible on nearly all aspects and elevations today. Although we didn't find a slab in the recent storm snow yesterday, strong winds from the northwest today may thicken it into a slab. Pay attention to how the snow is behaving before committing to steeper terrain. Look for signs of "slabiness" such as blocks of snow between your skis or cracking in the snow surface, and avoid areas with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Utilize test slopes or make "slope cuts" before you commit. Practice safe travel techniques such as skiing or riding slopes one at a time and move to a safe location at the bottom.