Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, January 20, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on any steep, wind drifted slope. On slopes facing W-N-E, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely. On south facing slopes out of the wind zone, the danger is MODERATE. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding, and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to stay off of, and out from under, steep, avalanche prone terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are sorry to report that a skier was buried and killed in a large avalanche around 5 pm Friday by Electric Lake, on the Manti/Skyline Plateau. Our sincere condolences go out to the victim's family and friends. Here is the preliminary accident report.
Grand County has not plowed since the most recent storm Thursday night. 4"-6" of rutted and drifted snow exists on the road. 4wd required.
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register. Much thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course! Please visit them for all of your winter backcountry needs.
Weather and Snow
High clouds are streaming into the area ahead of an upper level low approaching from the northwest. Westerly winds are blowing in the 15-20 mph range along ridge tops and 10,000' temps are in the low 20's. We'll see mostly sunny skies today with mountain temps in the high 20's. Winds will be on the increase, shifting to the SW later today ahead of an approaching storm system that will affect our area Mon-Tues.
Last week's storm cycle brought us 18" of new snow, the first round coming in heavy and dense, the second, light and fluffy. At around 2" of water weight, the load was too much for our weak snowpack, and widespread natural avalanching has occurred over the past several days. The snowpack continues to be touchy and yesterday, I and others continued to experience cracking, collapsing and whumphing from all corners of the range. Excellent turning and riding conditions can be found, even on southerly aspects, however, it is imperative that you keep your slope angles low.
Thanks for all the great observations that have been coming in, view the complete list here.
Base depth in Gold Basin: 53"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
It's been an active week for avalanche natural avalanche activity and numerous slides have been reported throughout the range.
State Parks ranger Jeff Arbon was snowmobiling on the east side of the range Thursday when conditions were quite sensitive. Road cuts, and steep banks were collapsing and avalanching easily under their weight. Though much of the sensitivity has gone out of the snow, slides like this were still being triggered yesterday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
18" of new snow with 2" of water weight has dangerously overloaded persistent weak layers in the snowpack and human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep are likely on steep slopes facing W-N-E. Stay off of steep slopes with these aspects. Nuff said?
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow has exacerbated the danger and deep fresh wind drifts have helped to overload a weak and fragile snowpack. During the storm cycle, SW winds loaded slopes facing NW-N-E. In these areas, wind drifted snow has increased the likelihood for triggering avalanches 2'-4' deep on a buried persistent weak layer. On Friday, winds shifted to the NW and blew snow the opposite direction on to southerly facing aspects. Bottom line - avoid any steep slope that has recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Additional Information
Grooming: Travis groomed yesterday and trails are in excellent condition!
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.