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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 15, 2019
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS! The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE today as new snow and wind drifted snow begin to dangerously overload a fragile snowpack. Human triggered avalanches failing 2'-3' deep on a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow are likely on steep slopes facing W-N-E, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. At mid and lower elevations the danger is MODERATE and deep, human triggered avalanches are still quite possible. By tomorrow, the danger will become more widespread with new snow creating instability on all aspects. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. Dangerous avalanche conditions will extend through the weekend.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register.
We've installed an avalanche beacon tester and a beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead! Be sure you are beeping and practice your rescue skills!
Thanks to UAC volunteer Ed Grote, ex La Sal forecaster Max Forgensi, and LUNA volunteer Matt Hebberd for helping out with this. You guys rock!
The new UAC IOS mobile app is now available on the app store. Check out the new "My Weather" feature.
Check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class.
Weather and Snow
Clouds have begun streaming into the area ahead of the first in a series of storm systems that look like they are going to bring substantial snowfall. SSE winds have been on the increase overnight and are currently blowing in the 20-25 mph range along ridge tops. Temps are in the mid 20's. Snow should begin to fall mid morning with 2"-4" possible today. Daytime temps will be in the high 20's with continued moderate to strong SW winds. Snow will continue tonight and tomorrow with up to a foot or more possible. Then we'll get a brief break before the next wave arrives on Thursday. Bring it!
Today look for a refreshing of the snow surface as new snow begins to accumulate. By tomorrow, the new snow will begin to seriously effect the snowpack, creating dangerous avalanche conditions for the next several days. State Parks ranger Jeff Arbon and I were out sledding on the east side of the range on Sunday. Here is what we found in our travels:
Base depth in Gold Basin: 40"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The immediate threat will come from new and drifting snow adding additional stress to buried, persistent weak layers in the snowpack. These layers of loose, sugary faceted snow can be found at the bottom of the Christmas storm, as well as on top of the October crust. Both layers are proving to be reactive in stability tests and the new snow will make a bad situation worse. Avoid steep terrain that faces W-N-NE where human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep are likely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow today will begin to form shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. In and of themselves, these new wind drifts shouldn't be too problematic, the concern will be where they are overlying a fragile snowpack. Travel advice remains the same, avoid steep slopes that face W-N-E, where wind drifted snow will increase the likelihood for triggering a deeper avalanche down to a buried persistent weak layer.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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