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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, January 14, 2019
I've dropped the avalanche danger down to MODERATE but this is the period when many avalanche accidents occur. There is still a high possibility for human triggered avalanches failing 2'-3' deep on a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow on steep slopes facing W-N-E. Though it's been a week since the last storm, the current snowpack structure is very weak, and signs of instability such as cracking and whumping continue to present themselves. Best bet is to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain. Stick to low angle slopes and meadows. On the south side of the compass, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
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Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register.
We've installed an avalanche beacon tester and a beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead! Be sure you are beeping and practice your rescue skills!
Thanks to UAC volunteer Ed Grote, ex La Sal forecaster Max Forgensi, and LUNA volunteer Matt Hebberd for helping out with this. You guys rock!
The new UAC IOS mobile app is now available on the app store. Check out the new "My Weather" feature.
Check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class.
Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear, southeasterly winds are light, and mountain temps are in the low teens. Today look for mostly sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and high temps in the low 20,s. Today looks to be the only sunny day in the mountains this week as a series of Pacific storms are poised to impact our area. The first one of significance will move in sometime tomorrow with the best chance for snow coming in tomorrow night. Another system is on track for Thursday.
It's been about a week since the last storm dropped 10"-12" of dense, wind driven snow on our fragile snowpack. A significant, natural avalanche cycle ensued but I haven't seen or heard of any recent avalanches since then. Nevertheless, the snowpack keeps talking. Dave Garcia and company were out in Gold Basin yesterday and they experienced numerous whumphs and collapses. Read his excellent report here. In my own travels to the east side of the range, I experienced a few collapses as well, and snow pits and stability tests continue to show a weak and unstable snowpack in many areas. The good news is you can still find soft, settled snow on low angle terrain!
Base depth in Gold Basin: 40"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanche activity had been reported since Tuesday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary faceted snow plague our snowpack and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. These layers can be found at the bottom of the Christmas storm, as well as at the bottom of the early December storm, on top of the October crust. Both layers are proving to be reactive in stability tests. In addition, collapsing and whumping in the snowpack continue to be commonplace. With the poor snowpack structure, and obvious signs of instability, you're going to want to continue to avoid steep terrain that faces W-N-NE where human triggered avalanches up to 3' deep remain likely.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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