Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Issued by Toby Weed for Friday, April 19, 2019 - 6:16am
Rapid warming, mountaintop temperatures rising above 50ºF, and intense solar warning will create dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger on sunny slopes. Natural and human triggered wet avalanches are likely on steep slopes during the heat of the day.
  • Head home early, and use extra caution. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 85 inches of total snow, and it's 39ºF this morning. Its 36ºF at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and west-northwest winds are currently averaging around 20 mph.
Rapid warming and mountaintop temperatures above 50ºF will create dangerous wet avalanche conditions on steep sunny slopes in the Logan Zone.
A mild southwesterly flow will bring a warming trend today, with above average temperatures continuing through Saturday. A mild storm system will cross the state late Saturday through Monday, followed by high pressure for the middle of next week.
It will be sunny today in the mountains again, with high temperatures at 9000' expected to be around 52ºF and 6 to 9 mph west-southwest wind. It will be mostly clear tonight with low temperatures around 34ºF, and 14 mph southwest winds. There is a 40% chance of rain and snow showers tomorrow afternoon, but little accumulation is expected. It will be partly sunny and warm, with high temperatures around 53ºF and 13 to 16 mph southwest wind.
Here is a short video from Utah Avalanche Center Staff about Spring snow.

Recent Avalanches
We can see numerous recent natural wet loose avalanches from Cache Valley today after the rainy and increasingly warm weather earlier this week. Widespread natural loose avalanches entraining wet new snow were observed across the Logan Zone on many steep slopes at upper and mid elevations, and some were pretty long running.

Numerous fairly large natural wet loose and a few wet slab avalanches occurred in the first half of April across the Logan Zone.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
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Description
The surface of the snow is only superficially refrozen after a warm night, with all stations in the Logan Zone reading well above above freezing overnight. Rapid seasonal daytime warming and strong April sun will cause increasing danger of wet avalanches entraining saturated snow. Dangerous natural and human triggered wet slab avalanches will become possible in steep sunny terrain, and wet loose avalanches are likely in the afternoon.
  • Avoid being on or under steep slopes with melt-softened saturated snow, and stay out of runout gullies.
  • Stay off and out from under large ridge top cornices, which are likely to break further back than expected, and could trigger avalanches on steep slopes below.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast by 7:30 tomorrow morning. We will continue to post intermittent and weekend updates through April.
Spring snow in the Logan Zone...
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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