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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
Elevated avalanche conditions exist and the danger is MODERATE. Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep are possible on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°. People could trigger avalanches at all elevations in very steep rocky terrain or on slopes with shallow snow cover. Avalanches are unlikely on crusty, southerly facing lower and mid elevation slopes.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
Last week people remotely triggered a few large avalanches on drifted slopes. Huge cornices formed with the recent storms, and heavy snow and drifting last weekend increased the load and thickened wind slabs overloading backcountry slopes, some with poor snow structure and buried persistent weak layers. Today, after a couple days with moderate winds and little snowfall, the snow is becoming more stable and the danger is diminishing. Even so, people could still trigger large cornice falls, or 1 to 3' thick slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer.
The cold temperatures are keeping the snow nice and soft, and we've been finding fantastic powder riding at all elevations on shady slopes facing the north side of the compass.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 15° F this morning, and there is 129 inches of total snow. The wind is currently blowing from the east around 10 mph at the UDOT Logan Summit weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -3. East southeast wind 14 to 16 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -7. West wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday:A 20 percent chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as -8. Southwest wind 10 to 16 mph.
Looks like the next storm will bring another foot or two for the weekend beginning Thursday night and continuing through Friday night.
Recent Avalanches
  • It has been quiet in the Logan Zone for the last couple days, with no new avalanches reported since the weekend storm.
  • Last week was quite active in the Logan Zone, with a few close calls and new avalanches reported almost every day. For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range earlier this week. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate easterly winds yesterday and overnight limited drifting. Easterly winds can form wind slabs in unexpected or unusual places. In exposed terrain and wind slabs formed earlier in the week close to ridge lines and high in avalanche starting zones. Harder, buried wind slabs are in many cases hidden by a few inches of powder. Avalanches of wind drifted snow, 1 to 3 feet thick, are possible in windy terrain at all elevations, but will be larger and more likely for people to trigger on upper elevation slopes. Drifting of today's fresh snow will create shallow new wind slabs...
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Some old wind slabs formed on a sugary persistent weak layer, and some might still be triggered remotely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer problem is widely scattered across terrain, where thin layers of sugary faceted snow exist only in some areas, but on most aspects. At lower elevations in the Logan Zone layers of sugary faceted snow are more widespread in areas with shallower snow cover (<4') and perhaps more prevalent on northerly facing slopes. Thin layers of weak snow also often form above or between sun crusts, and some recent avalanches have failed on sunny east and southeast facing slopes.
  • Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Additional Information
Large faceted grains are a bit moist but still soft and weak in the middle of the snowpack on a west facing slopesat lower elevsations in Card Canyon.
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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