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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Paige Pagnucco
Issued by Paige Pagnucco on
Sunday morning, March 2, 2025
Another night of no overnight refreeze and forecast warm daytime temperatures have created heightened avalanche conditions. There is a MODERATE danger and human-triggered and natural wet avalanches are possible in steep and/or sunny terrain. While unlikely, there is a potential for dangerous avalanches to be triggered in upper and mid-elevation terrain, where a persistent weak layer is buried 3 to 4 feet deep.
Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and continue to practice safe travel protocols.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Expect yet another beautiful day in the mountains with sunshine and warm temperatures. It has been 72 hours since the thermometer dipped below 32° F at Tony Grove. This means, once again, the snowpack did not refreeze thoroughly, though radiational cooling may have helped a bit with last night's clear skies. We'll start the day with less stability again, and wet avalanches may occur earlier in the day. If you are sinking deeply into the mashed potato snow, move to a cooler aspect or elevation or simply move away from steep terrain. With a temperature inversion this morning, I'd expect the snow to be somewhat unsupportable on upper and mid-elevation slopes that stayed warm overnight and more supportable in low-elevation terrain where temperatures got slightly below freezing. If you venture into higher elevations, avoid traveling on or beneath overhanging cornices, as they are weakening due to the warm temperatures.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet reports 38° F, with 88 inches of total snow. The high at Tony Grove yesterday was 54° F. It's 39° F at the Card Canyon weather station at 8800 feet, with 62 inches of total snow.
At 9700 feet at CSI's Logan Peak Wx station, winds are blowing 10-15 mph from the south-southwest and it's 36° F. On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it's 36° F, with winds blowing 8 to 13 mph from the south-southwest.
Today's mild southerly flow will overspread the Logan zone, boosting max temps 15°F or so above average. Expect very warm conditions in the mountains with an 8500' high of 50°F or more and light winds. It should be sunny for most of the day, but clouds may build in this afternoon ahead of an incoming storm system. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory beginning Monday at 5 am and lasting through Tuesday at 11 am. The mountains could pick up 3-7" by Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather continues until Friday.
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported yesterday.
Read about all avalanches and observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Continued warm overnight temperatures did not refreeze the saturated surface snow, and we expect sunny skies and already warm mountain temperatures to elevate the danger of wet avalanches even more. Three full days of above-freezing temperatures is not good for supportability or stability. You may find travel difficult in areas where the snowpack lacks cohesion and feels droppy. Loose wet avalanches are most likely in sunny terrain, especially near rock outcroppings and on slopes with shallow snow cover. More dangerous wet slab avalanches or heat-related slab avalanches failing on a buried PWL are possible on sunny slopes with poor snow structure. Southerly facing slopes at low elevations (<7000') are melted out or have only very shallow snow cover.
  • Roller balls, pinwheels, and natural sluffs are sure signs of instability.
  • If you start sinking into saturated snow, you should move off and stay out from under steep slopes.
Loose wet avalanches. (PC:KO)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer is decreasing, the consequences of doing so are still significant. Large and dangerous avalanches failing on one of a few buried persistent weak layers remain possible, especially in areas with shallower snow and poor snow structure. The danger is most acute in upper-elevation terrain on rocky slopes with shallow snow cover facing northwest through southeast, but avalanches failing on a PWL are possible on slopes facing all directions.
  • People could trigger avalanches of previously wind-drifted snow that may then step down into deeper persistent weak layers.
  • You should stay away from and out from under deceptive ridge-top cornices, which often break further back than expected and can trigger avalanches on drifted slopes below.
A recent cornice fall-triggered avalanche near Cougar Mountain. (PC:Jensen)
Additional Information
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-Remember the information you provide could save lives, especially if you see or trigger an avalanche. To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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