Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion for
Monday, March 11, 2024
The snowpack is generally stable, and the avalanche danger is LOW. The main concerns are isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow in exposed terrain at the upper elevations, along with looming cornices and lingering wet-snow instabilities after 24 hours of poor refreeze.
Pay attention to changing conditions and avoid being on steep solar aspects if the snow has become wet and unsupportable. Steer clear of being on or under large overhanging cornices, which may break back further than expected and may also trigger an avalanche below.

With the next storm system arriving Tuesday through Thursday, anticipate a rising avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
This morning, the skies are partly cloudy, and temperatures are warm across the range. As of 6 AM, it was 32°F, with a total snow depth of 109 inches at the Tony Grove Snotel. At our new Card Canyon weather station (8750'), the temperature was already 30°F, with a total snow depth of 84.5 inches. Meanwhile, at the CSI Logan Peak weather station (9700'), it's 26°F, with winds blowing from the south at 30 mph and gusts up to 43 mph. Similarly, on Paris Peak (9500'), it's 26°F, with winds blowing from the southwest at 15 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.
Today will remain warm ahead of the next front, with temperatures warming into the upper 30s°F. Winds will remain more southerly and remain elevated throughout the day, averaging 15-20 mph and gusting up to 30 at mid-elevations, with gusts near 45 at upper-elevation ridgelines. We could see a trace amount of snowfall midday, but the primary system arrives overnight.
Outlook: Southwesterly flow is increasing over Utah and southwest Wyoming as a Pacific storm system moves into Nevada. This system will weaken as it crosses the state, bringing only spotty showers mainly over northern Utah due to limited moisture and instability. Temperatures will drop slightly but remain above seasonal norms. After a brief break, a stronger storm system from the Pacific Northwest will approach, with precipitation becoming widespread across northern and central Utah on Tuesday, extending to the southern half overnight. More instability on Wednesday will lower snow levels, mainly affecting mountain areas with limited valley accumulations expected. By Thursday, the precipitation threat will diminish in the northwest but persist in the southeast, with the potential for significant downslope winds in prone areas. The Logan area mountains could see 10-14" of new snow.
Lingering well-settled powder can still be found in shady upper and mid-elevation terrain, although the cold areas are diminishing. Sunny slopes will develop a firm crust this morning, becoming damp as the day progresses. Snow depth from the past week's storms is notably deeper at higher elevations but has settled well.
Recent Avalanches
There were no new reports of avalanches in the Logan area backcountry yesterday.
The only report of a slab avalanche throughout this last cycle came in Saturday; a rider was caught, carried, and their sled was fully buried on the NE side of Midnight Mountain. This avalanche failed as a hard slab of wind-drifted snow. The avalanche failed at 3 feet and 175 feet, and ran close to 300 feet. Chad and Michael Davis were able to make their way up there Saturday. (See Video Below). Find the full observation HERE.

Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack is generally stable across the Logan Zone, but LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger. In isolated areas, you may encounter:
  • Stubborn wind slab avalanches in isolated terrain where the wind has deposited large amounts of snow over the past few weeks. Rounded pillows that crack or collapse on approach are sure signs that the wind-drifts should be approached with caution.
  • The elevated winds should keep the wet snow at bay today, but with days of warm temperatures and a poor overnight refreeze last night, there is still the potential to trigger wet-loose avalanches on steep slopes. Wet snow is the easiest avalanche problem to avoid; simply move to shady slopes once the snow surface becomes wet. Signs that the snow surface is becoming wet include rollerballs, pinwheels, and the snow surface no longer being supportable. Remember, even a small avalanche can have a detrimental outcome in consequential terrain. Watch for terrain traps.
  • Cornices present a real danger today as well. Give them a wider berth than expected. Cornice falls could trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Remember safe travel techniques: Only expose one person at a time when crossing steep slopes. Make sure everyone in your party has a beacon, shovel, and probe and knows how to use them.
Additional Information
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read my recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.