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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Saturday, February 2, 2019
MODERATE: The avalanche danger will rise rapidly in the backcountry, with a warm, wet, and windy storm this weekend overloading widespread weak surface snow. Heightened avalanche conditions already exist on upper elevation slopes this morning, with avalanches involving wind drifted snow possible. Drifting will cause the danger to increase and become more widespread during the day. Rain below about 7500' will saturate the snow and create heightened wet avalanche conditions on steep lower elevation slopes. There's still a small chance someone might trigger a dangerous hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer, and it is possible this storm could reawaken the sleeping dragon. Continue to avoid very steep, rocky or shallow slopes with poor snow structure.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
  • Be advised that dangerous conditions will develop overnight. Natural avalanches are possible, and the danger will likely rise to HIGH in some areas by tomorrow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Weak surface snow, consisting of sugary near surface facets and surface hoar feathers, is widespread in the Logan Zone, and a wet, warm and windy storm this weekend will cause the avalanche danger to rise significantly in the backcountry.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 34º F this morning and there's 54" of total snow containing 84% of average SWE for the date. It's 27º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. South-southwest winds increased significantly overnight and are currently averaging 35 to 40 mph, with gusts close to 60 mph.
A series of storm systems will impact the area through the middle of next week. Later today it'll snow in the mountains, with rain below about 7500'. 2 to 4 inches of accumulation is forecast. High temperatures at 8500' expected around 34º F, and 30 to 35 mph south wind with 50 mph gusts. Tonight, we'll see heavy snow and further intensifying south wind. Temperatures will rise to around 36º F, and it'll be very windy, 40 to 45 mph south wind, with gusts in the 60s. 8 to 12 inches of accumulation is forecast. Snow and wind will continue tomorrow, with 3 to 7 inches possible, temperatures around 30º F, and 32 to 39 mph southwest wind, gusting to around 55 mph.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone.
There were numerous close calls and lucky outcomes across Utah in January, including several in the Logan Zone. Sadly, we have two recent fatalities to report, both from the Manti La Sal National Forest.
-A snowmobile rider was killed Friday, 1/25/18, in the La Sal Mountains near Moab.... report is HERE
-A backcountry skier was killed near Fairview on 1/18/19. .. report is HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • You might trigger slabs made up of wind drifted snow on steep slopes in exposed upper and mid elevation terrain.
  • Overhanging cornices have grown large on some of the major ridges. These can break further back than expected. Stay off and out from under cornices this weekend as drifting from strong south and west winds will make them active
  • Avoid stiffer, drifted snow on the lee of major ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, scoops, gullies, cliff bands, and stringers.
  • Hard wind slabs sometimes allow folks to get out on them before releasing.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rain below about 7500' will saturate the snow and create heightened wet snow avalanche conditions on steep slopes. Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely as rain continues tonight and into tomorrow. Avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are unlikely yet possible for people to trigger on very steep drifted rocky slopes with shallow cover and poor snow structure. There is low probability that you could trigger a dangerous, high consequence, 3-feet-deep hard slab avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer.
Frost or feathery surface hoar and thick and thin layers of small-grained near surface facets plague the snow surface on many slopes currently, and will likely become persistent weak layers after buried by the next storm.
Weak surface snow plagues the Logan Zone currently, and we are set up for an active period as a warm, wet, and windy storm bares down on us this weekend.
Chains of well developed, loose faceted snow. Weak sugary snow like this is widespread in the Logan Zone in places where the snow is less than about a meter deep.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.
The new weather station at the WSU Bloomington Canyon Yurt is up and running. Data available HERE
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. Same goes for the steep rocky terrain adjacent to Cherry Peak Resort. If you leave a ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment and follow safe backcountry travel protocols.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations. HERE You can call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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