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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, February 16, 2024
Expect dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger in the backcountry today, with rapid accumulations of heavy snow and drifting from increasingly strong wind blowing from the west. Natural avalanches are possible, especially during periods of heavy snowfall and/or drifting. People are likely to trigger slab avalanches up to 2 feet thick in drifted upper and mid-elevation terrain and on slopes steeper than 30° with significant accumulations of heavy new snow. Loose avalanches of storm snow are possible on steep slopes at all elevations.
  • Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel.
  • Avoid and stay out from under slopes steeper than 30° during periods of heavy snowfall or drifting from blowing snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are seeking a passionate individual to join us as Executive Director of the nonprofit Utah Avalanche Center. Click here for more information.
Want to learn more about how to stay safe from avalanches while riding in the backcountry? Join us Feb 23-24 for an Introduction to Avalanche class. Information and registration here.
Weather and Snow
Yesterday, observers noted very heavy new snow and obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing. In some areas, the heavy snow quickly became wet and sloppy in the afternoon when it was warmed by the sun. Heavy snowfall and drifting will cause dangerous conditions in the backcountry again today. As snow rapidly accumulates and is drifted by strong winds from the west, human-triggered soft slab avalanches up to around 2 feet deep will be likely on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes. Natural avalanches are possible and will most likely occur during periods of particularly heavy snowfall and drifting.
Light snowfall is visible this morning on Beaver Mountain's webcams. The Tony Grove snotel at 8400' reports 11" of new snow in the last 24 hrs with 1.5" SWE. It's 24° F at the site, and there is 90" of total snow. The wind is blowing from the southwest this morning, 20 to 25 mph , at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak, winds from the southwest are blowing around 15 mph, and it's 18° F.
The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Storm Warning for the Northern Bear River Range and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Logan Zone south of the state line through this afternoon. Periods of heavy snow with significant accumulations and drifting by intensifying winds blowing snow from the west are expected today. 11 to 17 inches of additional new snow could accumulate on select upper-elevation slopes by this evening. Temperatures will remain steady, with high temperatures around 27° F at 8500', and 25 to 30 mph winds with higher gusts will blow from the west.
Snowfall will taper off, and skies will clear tonight, with mountain temperatures expected to fall to around 4° F and diminishing northerly winds veering from the east.
Saturday will be mostly sunny with 8500' high temperatures around 29° F and 9 mph winds blowing from the southeast. Snow is expected on Sunday in the mountains, with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation possible.
Recent Avalanches
A skier triggered a couple of small soft slab avalanches, 10 inches deep and about 50 feet wide in the Garden City Bowls yesterday on an east-facing slope at around 8600 feet in elevation.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Drifting by winds from the west will increase the avalanche danger during the day today. Natural avalanches of wind-drifted snow are possible in exposed upper-elevation terrain, and people are likely to trigger wind slab avalanches up to 2 feet deep on drifted slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Watch for and avoid fresh and forming wind slabs on the lee side of major ridges on corniced slopes and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gully walls, and mid-slope rollovers.
  • Stay well away from and out from under overhanging cornices, which are growing today and may break further back than expected.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow will become more likely at all elevations as heavy snow accumulates on steep slopes during the day. Loose wet avalanches of soggy new snow are possible in some steep lower-elevation terrain.
  • Natural avalanches are most likely during periods of particularly heavy snowfall, and rapid accumulations will also make avalanches more easily triggered by people.
  • People should avoid being in avalanche paths and stay off and out from under steep slopes with significant accumulations during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • People should also avoid being on or under steep lower-elevation slopes with wet or moist new snow.
Additional Information
Here is a short video showing the deep and stable snow we found during Wednesday's field day in the Cub River Area. Our main concerns moving forward will be centered around new snow and wind-related avalanche problems.
General Announcements
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read Toby's recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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