Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, February 16, 2020
Sunday morning, February 16, 2020
Heavy snow and drifting from southwest winds will cause rapidly rising avalanche danger today. Heightened avalanche conditions exist already this morning on drifted upper elevation slopes, and today's storm will cause dangerous conditions to develop and become more widespread. The danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE on upper and mid elevation slopes, and people are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow. Soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow will be increasingly possible as heavy snow accumulates on steep slopes at all elevations.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route-finding, and make conservative decisions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 24°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is about 5"of new snow with 0.6" Snow Water Equivalent. There is 87 inches of total snow, containing 128% of normal SWE. West-southwest winds are currently blowing around 28 mph, with gusts in the mid 40s at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, and it's 18°F at 9700'.
A thick, very loose layer of graupel, rimed snow capped by the 2/7 crust has not gained much strength and is widespread across the zone.
The National Weather Service in Pocatello has continued a Winter Storm Warning for the Bear River Range north of the Utah state line, through 10:00 tonight. Expect heavy snow in the mountains today, with 6 to 10 inches of accumulation possible at upper elevations. Temperatures at 8500' will remain steady around 24°F, with 16 to 25 mph west-southwest winds. West winds will increase tonight, into the 30 to 35 mph range, and snow will continue but taper off by midnight, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. It will be mostly cloudy tomorrow and snow showers are likely, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible. High temperatures will be near 20°F, and 16 to 20 mph west northwest winds will create wind chill values as low as -9°F.
Recent Avalanches
Riders in the Central Bear River Range report drifting in exposed terrain and a couple small unintentional triggered wind slabs Friday. One was 6" to 1' deep, 20' wide, running around 400 vrt' on slick bed surface.
A skier triggered a shallow wind slab, about 6" deep and 75' wide Friday afternoon, and was able to ski off it before getting caught.
A skier triggered a shallow wind slab, about 6" deep and 75' wide Friday afternoon, and was able to ski off it before getting caught.
Natural activity was fairly widespread in the Logan Zone during the last windy and warm storm.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
West-southwest winds are drifting fresh snow, easily picking it up off the crusty snow surface in windward and low angled fetch areas and depositing it into lee slope avalanche starting zones. Drifting will intensify as heavy snow falls today, and dangerous avalanche conditions will probably develop. People are likely to trigger avalanches of recently wind drifted snow on exposed upper and mid elevation slopes, and natural avalanches are possible later in the afternoon.
- Watch for and avoid drifts near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Triggered soft slabs and loose avalanches consisting of today's storm snow will become increasingly likely as snow stacks up rapidly in the backcountry today. Natural avalanches will become possible later this afternoon, especially during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
Additional Information
We found mostly stable snow and LOW danger in the Logan Zone this week, but a strong winter storm with heavy snowfall and drifting from gusty west-southwest winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions on many slopes in the backcountry today.
We found a deep and stable snowpack in Hells Kitchen, but there is some weak graupel and rimed snow near the surface.
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.