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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Monday, December 31, 2018
CONSIDERABLE: Yesterday's cold and windy storm created dangerous avalanche conditions on many upper elevation slopes due to wind drifted snow. Human triggered avalanches are likely up high this morning and also possible on drifted middle and lower elevation slopes, where heightened avalanche conditions exist. Watch out for yesterday's drifts hiding under a couple inches of fluffy powder from last night.
  • Use extra caution in the backcountry today.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, make conservative choices, and avoid steep slopes with wind drifted snow.
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday's blustery storm created dangerous avalanche conditions at upper elevations, and triggered avalanches up to two-feet-deep involving wind drifted snow are likely. We noticed significant drifting at lower elevations in the Logan Canyon Area also, and wind slab avalanches are possible at all elevations. A few inches of fresh snow from overnight covers some of yesterday's drifts, hiding them from view.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 7 inches of new snow with .8" SWE in the last 24 hours. It's 6º F this morning and there's 45"of total snow containing 88% of average SWE. It's 1º F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and north winds are currently averaging about 13 mph.
A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region through the end of the week, allowing valley inversions to become established. Today will be party sunny and cold in the mountains, with a high temperature at 8500' around 10º F and 10 to 14 mph north wind veering from the east. Wind chills as low as -14º F are expected. Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low around -11º F and 11 mph east wind, pushing wind chill values down to -30º F. New Years Day will be sunny and cold, with a high temperature near 10º F, and 7 to 10 mph east-northeast wind. Wind chill values will be as low as -27º F
Recent Avalanches
Noticed some natural avalanche activity due to wind drifted snow in upper Providence Canyon, likely from overnight 12/27/18.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted upper elevation slopes, and triggered avalanches consisting of wind drifted snow are likely. You'll also find heightened conditions today on many mid and some lower elevation slopes, where wind slab avalanches are possible.
  • Watch for and avoid drifted snow on the lee sides of major ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gullies, stringers, and sub-ridges.
  • Avoid steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance, or that sound hollow like a drum.
  • Hard wind slabs have a nasty tendency to let you get well out on them before releasing.
  • Cracking in the snow is a red flag indicating potential instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although unlikely, dangerous human triggered hard slab avalanches failing on a sugary persistent weak layer near the ground remain possible on isolated upper elevation slopes. Avoid very steep slopes with poor snow structure, including shallow, shady, or rocky terrain at upper elevations.
The shallow snow on the ground in many areas has become loose, sugary, and faceted in the past couple weeks. I've found particularly weak snow at mid and lower elevations in the backcountry, anywhere where the total snow is fairly shallow. Lacking a slab of stronger snow on top for now, the sugary snow is currently stable despite it's weakness.
Sugary, faceted snow plagues the entire shallow snowpack in many backcountry areas. This from 12/29/18, on a east facing slope at 7700' from the Backside on the east side of Beaver Mountain in Beaver Canyon.
Additional Information
I will update this advisory Tuesday morning.
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment. Always practice safe backcountry travel protocols.
General Announcements
The new UAC IOS mobile app is now available on the app store. Check out the new "My Weather" feature. HERE
Check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class. HERE
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. Here is our practice video.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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