Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 9, 2020
Thursday morning, January 9, 2020
More snow and continued drifting from west winds will cause increasing danger in the backcountry again today. CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on drifted upper elevation slopes. People are likely to trigger dangerous avalanches of wind drifted snow 1 to 3 feet deep, and these avalanches could fail on a persistent weak layer. Avalanches of wind drifted or new snow are possible on many steep slopes and at all elevations. You can find safer conditions at lower elevations, and in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Weather and Snow
It's snowing and 18°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is 9 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours, with .8" SWE. There is 65 inches of total snow, with 121% of average SWE for the date. It's 12°F at the CSI weather station at 9700' on Logan Peak, and it's still pretty windy. West-southwest winds are currently blowing about 20 mph.
Strong westerly winds drifted the New Years snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones across the Logan Zone. Areas with dangerous conditions exist on drifted upper elevation slopes, and people could trigger serious avalanches in the backcountry. You can find pretty nice shallow powder and much safer conditions at lower elevations, in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
Paige discusses our concerns about the large east facing slopes in upper Providence Canyon....
More snow will fall in the mountains today, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation possible at upper elevations. 8500' temperatures will be around 24°F this morning, but fall to around 17°F this afternoon. West-southwest winds around 15 mph are expected. Snow showers will continue tonight, with 2 to 4 inches expected. Low temperatures are expected to be around 4°F, with 14 mph west-northwest winds, and wind chills around -14°F. It will be mostly sunny tomorrow, with high temperatures around 18°F, northwest winds 8 to 15 mph, and wind chill values as low as -12°F. Active and snowy weather is expected to continue through the middle of next week with several storms in the forecast.
Recent Avalanches
A rider triggered a 2' deep and 100' wide avalanche on an east facing slope at around 8200' in elevation near White Pine Creek on Tuesday, 1-7-2020. No one was caught or injured.
-A close call occurred Saturday (1-4-2020) when a rider was caught, carried, and partially buried at about 9000' on an east facing slope above Hidden Lake in Gibson Basin, a couple miles north of the state line out of Beaver Creek Canyon. The avalanche of wind drifted snow was about 2' deep and around 150' wide.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday, west winds dropped down into the terrain in the upper Logan Canyon Area, moving snow around and increasing the danger at lower and mid elevations. Drifting snow will cause rising danger again today as more snow is drifted on steep slopes. People are likely to trigger 1 to 3 foot deep avalanches of wind drifted snow on upper elevation slopes. Avalanches are possible on many mid elevation and some lower elevation slopes as well.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Soft fresh wind slabs can be quite sensitive, and are often remotely triggered. Hard wind slabs can be more devious, sometime allowing one to get out on them before releasing.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees at upper and mid elevations. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, and some slopes were plagued by feathery surface hoar before the New Years Storm. A persistent weak layer associated with a thin sun-crust appears to be active on drifted sunny slopes in many areas across Northern Utah. Some avalanches today might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. Some slopes in the area may stay unstable for a while.
We found weak sugary snow and deteriorating crusts at upper elevations on southeast facing slopes in the Providence Canyon and Red Pine Ridge area yesterday.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose sluffs and shallow soft slabs of new snow are possible on steep slopes, especially at upper elevations and in the Central Bear River Range where more snow has fallen recently. Natural avalanches are possible during periods of particularly heavy snowfall. Even small avalanches can be quite dangerous if you get dragged into trees or other terrain traps below.
Additional Information
We had a great time with the Avalanche 101 class up at Tony Grove on Saturday....
General Announcements
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.