Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, January 8, 2020
Wednesday morning, January 8, 2020
Snow and drifting from west winds will cause increasing avalanche danger in the backcountry today. Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on drifted upper elevation slopes. People are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow 1 to 3 feet deep, and these avalanches could fail on a persistent weak layer. You can find safer conditions at lower elevations, and in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding at upper elevations, and make conservative decisions.
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Weather and Snow
It's 28°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is 56 inches of total snow, with 115% of average SWE for the date. Several inches of light snow fell at upper elevations in the Central Bear River Range Sunday and Monday, with a bit over an inch of SWE. Much less snow fell in the Logan Peak Area, at lower elevations, and at other most of the other snow sites in the area, with about .5" SWE the average. It's 19°F at the CSI weather station at 9700' on Logan Peak, and it's still pretty windy. Southwest winds are currently blowing 20 to 30 mph, with a 53 mph gust early this morning.
Strong westerly winds drifted the New Years snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones across the Logan Zone. Areas with dangerous conditions exist on drifted upper elevation slopes, and people could trigger serious avalanches in the backcountry. You can find pretty nice shallow powder and much safer conditions at lower elevations, in lower angled and sheltered terrain.
Paige discusses our concerns about the large east facing slopes in upper Providence Canyon....
Snow will fall in the mountains today, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation possible at upper elevations. 8500' temperatures will be around 27°F this morning, but fall to around 17°F this afternoon. West winds around 15 mph are expected. Snow showers will continue tonight, with 2 to 4 inches expected. Low temperatures are expected to be around 12°F, with 16 mph west winds. Snow showers are expected tomorrow, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible. High temperatures will around 22°F in the morning, falling to around 14°F during the rest of the day, and we'll see 15 mph west-southwest winds. Active and snowy weather is expected to continue through the weekend and beyond.
Recent Avalanches
A rider triggered a 2' deep and 100' wide avalanche on an east facing slope at around 8200' in elevation near White Pine Creek on Tuesday, 1-7-2020. No one was caught or injured.
-A close call occurred Saturday (1-4-2020) when a rider was caught, carried, and partially buried at about 9000' on an east facing slope above Hidden Lake in Gibson Basin, a couple miles north of the state line out of Beaver Creek Canyon. The avalanche of wind drifted snow was about 2' deep and around 150' wide.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Drifting snow will cause a rising danger today. People are likely to trigger 1 to 3 foot deep avalanches of wind drifted snow on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, northeast, east, and southeast. Avalanches are possible on many mid elevation slopes as well.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Soft fresh wind slabs can be quite sensitive, and are often remotely triggered. Hard wind slabs can be more devious, sometime allowing one to get out on them before releasing.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees at upper and mid elevations. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, and some slopes were plagued by feathery surface hoar before the New Years Storm. A persistent weak layer associated with a thin sun-crust appears to be active on drifted sunny slopes in many areas across Northern Utah. Some avalanches today might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. Some slopes in the area may stay unstable for a while.
We found weak sugary snow and deteriorating crusts at upper elevations on southeast facing slopes in the Providence Canyon and Red Pine Ridge area yesterday.
Additional Information
We had a great time with the Avalanche 101 class up at Tony Grove on Saturday....
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.