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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, January 25, 2019
MODERATE: Heightened avalanche conditions exist and you could trigger avalanches in drifted upper and mid elevation terrain. Dangerous 2 to 3-feet-deep hard slab avalanches are gradually becoming less likely yet remain possible on some very steep upper and mid elevation slopes with buried persistent weak layers. You can find safer conditions and nice shallow powder on lower angled slopes, at lower elevations, and in sheltered terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
It's been about a week since we've seen natural avalanche activity in the Logan Zone and no new avalanches were reported this week. Drifting from westerly winds created heightened conditions on some upper and mid elevation slopes, and you might trigger small avalanches consisting of wind drifted snow. Dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are gradually becoming less likely for people to trigger. Stability has also improved on lower elevation slopes, where cold temperatures solidified rain-saturated snow. We found nice shallow powder and stable conditions on sunny slopes, in sheltered lower angled terrain, and at lower elevations.
The last rays of sun on Cherry Peak 1/22/19
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 2 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. It's 20º F this morning and there's 62" of total snow containing 93% of average SWE for the date. I'm reading 14º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and northwest winds are currently averaging around 20 mph, with gusts in the 40s.
A series of weak storm systems will move through Utah, bringing periods of minor mountain snow accumulations and temperatures near seasonal normals. Today we'll see snow showers, with an inch of accumulation possible. It'll be mostly cloudy, high temperatures at 8500' around 25º F, and 15 to 20 mph west winds. Tonight, snow showers are possible, low temperatures around 12º F, and 15 to 20 mph west-southwest wind. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy, with temperature around 29º F, and 15 mph west wind.
Recent Avalanches
-A backcountry skier was buried by an avalanche and killed near Fairview late Thursday, 1/18/19. Search and rescue teams from Emery and Sanpete County recovered his body Friday near Electric Lake on the Manti Skyline. Preliminary report is HERE.
-Natural avalanches were widespread across the Logan Zone late last week, but they're covered up by fresh snow now so not so obvious. Natural avalanches of note include somewhat blown-in evidence of large hard slab avalanches on many paths in the Wellsville Range, and in the Bear River Range, including big ones in Wood Camp, Tab Hollow, Logan Dry Canyon, and Castle Rock near Naomi Peak.
I could see evidence of a large hard slab avalanche in off the Beirdneau Ridge in Tab Hollow.
A natural avalanche off Grandfather Cornice, Cornice Ridge as seen on 1/22/19
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow is causing heightened avalanche conditions in exposed upper and mid elevation terrain. Triggered wind slab avalanches, 1 to 2-feet-deep are possible in some areas.
Wind slab avalanches involve drifts ranging from very soft, (freshly formed from light powder), to very hard (older, from very strong wind). Soft, fresh wind slabs are often quite sensitive to triggering. You usually can trigger from the top, manageable. Hard wind slabs can be tricky, sometimes allowing people to get out on then before releasing.
  • Wind slabs are smooth and rounded looking drifts on steep slopes, and they sometime make hollow drum-like sounds.
  • Avoid stiffer drifts in and around terrain features like sub ridges, cliff bands, stringers, scoops, and gullies.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Layers of weak December snow and shallow snow near the ground in many areas is loose, sugary, and faceted. Hard slab avalanches 2 to 4 feet deep failing on buried persistent weak layers could be remote triggered on steep slopes with poor snow structure, meaning you might trigger one from a distance, or below. The weak faceted snow will cause slopes to be unstable as they gradually adjust to the recent new snow and drifting. The sugary snow will remain weak, but stability on most slopes is increasing. So, there is low probability that you could trigger a dangerous high consequence avalanche. Avoid very steep drifted slopes with shallow snow cover and poor snow structure.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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