Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, January 20, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on any steep, wind drifted slope. On slopes facing W-N-E, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely. On south facing slopes out of the wind zone, and at lower elevations, the danger is MODERATE. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding, and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to stay off of, and out from under, steep, avalanche prone terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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Weather and Snow
Webcam image courtesy of Kevin Dressel.
High clouds are streaming into the area ahead of an upper level low approaching from the northwest. Westerly winds are blowing in the 15-20 mph range along ridge tops and 10,000' temps are in the low 20's. We'll see mostly sunny skies today with mountain temps in the high 20's. Winds will be on the increase, shifting to the SW later today ahead of an approaching storm system that will affect our area Mon-Tues.
The mountains picked up another 4"-6" of new snow on Thursday bringing totals since Wednesday up to around 18". I had a look around on Friday, and observed winds transporting snow and signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. We chose to stick to low angle terrain off the Hart's Draw Road and only ventured a short way up North Creek. The large avalanche above Buckboard Flat, and heavy wind transporting of snow kept our decisions conservative. Though things have quieted down since then, the presence of buried weak layers, and areas of wind drifted snow continue to make human triggered avalanches likely, particularly on slopes with a northerly aspect.
Snowpack percentage of normal 115%
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
A large natural avalanche, 600-800' wide occurred on the big east face above Butler Flat. It occurred during the storm Thursday night.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.