Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - January 2, 2015 - 7:29am
bottom line

Today there is a MODERATE danger in wind exposed terrain on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a SW-N-E aspect in areas where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. There is also a "low probability-high consequence" MODERATE danger for triggering a deep persistent slab on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, primarily at upper mid to upper elevation terrain that has a NW-N-E aspect.
current conditions

The mountains received 4-6" of new snow Wednesday night into Thursday, and good powder conditions still exist though the snow is variably wind affected in exposed areas. Ridge top winds overnight have been mostly light from the North but they picked up around 5:00 a.m. into the 30-35 mph range and shifting to more easterly.

Temperatures are again cold this morning. It is currently 9 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak and 12 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Mountain weather conditions at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

Snow totals at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals in Gold Basin.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Wind slabs formed earlier this week from the ESE winds have gained strength and they will be much more stubborn to release but it is still possible to trigger a slide up to a foot deep in the new snow. It is also possible that a wind slab release could step down into buried weak layers creating a much more dangerous avalanche. The uncommon wind direction deposited snow in unusual places and cross loading was definitely a factor. Suspect terrain in the wind zone steeper than 35 degrees with an NW-N-E aspect and look for the usual telltale signs such as smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow and cracking in the snow surface.

Cracking in the snow surface indicating a recently formed wind slab on 12-31-2015.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Over the past couple of weeks up to 3' of snow has fallen on top of persistent buried weaknesses in the snowpack. Though the snowpack has largely adjusted to this new load, it is still a delicate balance. We call this a low probability-high consequence situation where the odds of triggering a deep persistent slab are getting slimmer, but the consequences are such that the risk probably isn't worth it. Careful slope analysis is key for those who wish to venture into larger terrain. This danger is most prevalent at upper-mid to upper elevations on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas of rocky terrain that have a thin snowpack.

weather

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -10. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

general announcements


Road Conditions: The road was plowed on Monday.

Grooming Conditions: Trails were groomed into Gold Basin on Tuesday.

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. This advisory will be updated on Saturday, January 3 or sooner if conditions warrant.