Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Greg Gagne for Friday - March 2, 2018 - 7:11am
bottom line

The Utah Avalanche Center has issued an avalanche watch for dangerous avalanche conditions developing later today and into this weekend.

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at the upper elevations, and MODERATE at the mid elevations, for fresh wind drifts. These drifts can be found on all aspects. Deeper slides can be triggered on isolated slopes facing north through southeast, especially on slopes with a thinner snowpack.

Strong winds today and into Saturday, and a forecasted cold front with heavy snow arriving Saturday afternoon, means this weekend will have a rising avalanche hazard. Follow utahavalanchecenter.org for the latest updates.
avalanche watch

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE AND WASATCH PLATEAU.

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA IS CONSIDERABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO HIGH BY SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS BY LATER TODAY, AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
special announcement

I'm especially excited about this one! The latest edition of the UAC podcast is live - "A Conversation with Tom Kimbrough. Hemingway of the Wasatch". Tom is a retired climbing ranger in Grand Teton National Park, and a longtime avalanche forecaster with the UAC. A role model and mentor to many of us. Sit back and enjoy listening to Drew having a conversation with Tom!

Spend some time improving your rescue skills or learning about avalanches in this upcoming Salt Lake City area class:
current conditions

Temperatures in the Provo mountains this morning range through the 20's F, and southerly winds are gusting into the 20's mph at reported stations; upper elevations are likely gusting into the 40's and 50's mph. 4-6" of snow fell on Thursday afternoon.
recent activity

Pockets of sensitive soft wind drifts were reported from the Salt Lake mountains on Thursday afternoon. With more snow in the Provo mountains, wind drifts were most likely more widespread.

Wasatch Powderbirds provided excellent photos from the natural cycle earlier this week in Cascade Ridgeline from the Monday wind event:
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Strong winds overnight and into today will find any soft snow, and will transport it creating fresh wind drifts. Although I am expecting these drifts to be scattered, you will find fresh wind slabs on all aspects at all elevations.

Cornices are becoming more widespread along ridgelines – continuing to grow with today’s increasing southerly winds. Cornices often break back further than expected, on to what often looks like flat terrain. Give them a wide berth and avoid travel below them.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Avalanches breaking into old snow have been reported this past week. This includes layers of faceted snow at the mid-pack, as well as down near the ground. This terrain can be found in upper elevation terrain facing north through southeast. The snowpack in the Provo mountains is quite thin and weak, especially at the lower elevations. The photo below is on a north aspect at 8700' on Mount Timpanogas, a snowpack that looks more early season than early March! You can read UAC director Mark's Staples full observation from Thursday by clicking here.

Slopes that are most suspect include thinner snowpack areas as well as slopes that have already slid this season. Although we are not expecting the bulk of the snowfall with this upcoming storm to begin falling until Saturday, drifts from the strong pre-frontal winds will add stress to these weak layers.
weather

Although our friends at the Mount Washington Avalanche Center in NH might call this a gentle spring breeze, wind is the name of the game over - at least - the next 24-36 hours, and it will be a struggle to find sheltered terrain. Winds are forecasted to average in the 20's at 9000', and in the 30's mph at 10,000'. Gusts will reach the 50's at mid elevations, and into the 60's and 70's (perhaps stronger) at the upper elevations. Temperatures will range through the 20's and low 30's F. Increasing clouds with snow showers possible this afternoon.

Timing for this storm continues to get pushed back, and we are now expecting serious snowfall to begin later Saturday afternoon. We are still on track for a significant storm with upwards of one to two feet of snow at the higher elevations.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.