Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for Monday - February 5, 2018 - 6:30am
bottom line

Today, we have a MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab avalanche on slopes that face northwest to east above 8,000' in elevation. The most suspect slopes will be the ones that are getting loaded by the wind and new snow. Human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are possible. Additionally, shallow pockets of wind blown snow will be found along the upper elevation terrain features and will be most problematic in high consequence terrain. Lastly, damp push-alanches are possible in steep low to mid-elevation sheltered slopes that have remained warm for the past several days.




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current conditions

Mostly cloudy skies this morning with light snow showers across the northern mountains. Areas favored by a northwest flow have picked up trace to 2" of snow with (0.10" to 0.20") snow water equivalent. Westerly winds continue to be strong across the high terrain with average speeds of 20-30 mph gusting into the 50's. Mid elevation winds are 15-25 mph gusting into the 30's. Current upper elevation temperatures are in the 25-30°F range. Lower elevation trailheads are in the mid to low 40's °F. The rain/snow line is currently around 8000' feet in elevation.

A few inches of dense, wind driven snow can go a long way for our weathered snow surface. Riding and turning conditions will be improving today and into tomorrow as a few more inches of snow stack up. The southerly terrain will be dust on crust, while the northerly facing terrain will be a mix of powder, rime crust, and wind crusts.

recent activity

None. Here is a LIST of all recent observations for the Ogden area.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

With each loading event we see this dragon come back to life - It's hard to say how much wind or snow (weight) it will take to re-activate this beast. Our lingering persistent slab avalanche problem exists at elevations 8500' and above, on slopes facing northwest through east (with a particular emphasis on north through northeast.) Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect.

As an outlier, surface hoar formed on the 22nd and buried on the 25th has been noted in the mountains east of Hunstsville and Eden (and in the southern end of the Logan zone) and has yet to be reactive to human weight or snow tests. This is a layer of concern. Any collapsing or cracking in this layering is a red flag. It'll be important to watch this layer and see if additional wind loading may provide additional stress in localized terrain. (Photo Below)

This year, I've continued to avoid this terrain all together by keeping my slope angles to 30° and avoiding terrain that's above and adjacent to me. I simply do not trust the snowpack. I am yet to ride anything steep (greater than 30°) that faces the north half of the compass. Maybe, some would call me too conservative (that's okay) I am in it for the long run.

Photo: surface hoar we found in Monte Crisco area of Ogden mountains. It's the long gray stripe in the snowpack, about a foot down from the surface.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

As the strong westerly winds continue across the high elevations it will grab whatever snow is available for transport - depositing the snow on the lee side of ridges and terrain features. It only takes a few inches of snow to create new sensitive wind drifts. Avoid rounded, pillowy snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.

weather

We remain under a northwest flow today and tomorrow. Winds will continue to blow from the west and north with speeds of 20-30 mph gusting into the 30's and 40's across the mid to high elevation terrain. Snow showers will be off and on, with times of riming. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly this afternoon and the rain/snow line will be dropping from 8000' down to 6000' later today. Tonight and tomorrow will be the best chance for snow as a another trough swings by. lets hope for 4" to 8" inches of total snow by Tuesday evening before drying out midweek.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.